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JTM45 · 11-08-2012, 02:15 PM

She's overtaken Luke A pushing him back into second place again.
I had a feeling this would happen once she'd survived last night's eviction and i think the boos she got will probably be a good thing to get her back on target.

The WIN is now Deana's for sure!!! Woot, WOOT!!!!!

Locke. · 11-08-2012, 03:20 PM

Good, the bookies favourite very rarely wins these days

JTM45 · 11-08-2012, 03:31 PM

Aaron was the bookies favourite last year!
Deana's going to win, absolutely no doubt about it.

alex_front2 · 11-08-2012, 03:31 PM

This is not actually a good thing - leads to favorite fan complacency and rival fans making more effort on voting. Favorites have often lost

Denise was 3rd favourite to win behind Gareth
and Frankie
Aaron was 2nd favourite behind Alex
Paddy was 3rd favourite to win behind Jedward
and Kerry
Ulrika was 4th favourite to win behind everyone
bar Ben
Rachel was 2nd favourite to win behind Michael
Brian was 2nd favourite to win behind Samanda
Bez was 2nd favouritw to win behind Kenzie

Locke. · 11-08-2012, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTM45

Aaron was the bookies favourite last year!
Deana's going to win, absolutely no doubt about it.

No, he wasn't. Alex was, and then Jay when it got to the final 2.

alex_front2 · 11-08-2012, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTM45

Aaron was the bookies favourite last year!
Deana's going to win, absolutely no doubt about it.

Not true in the days leading up to final Alex was fav. Hence the shock when she only managed third behind Jay and obv Aaron

Munchkins · 11-08-2012, 03:32 PM

I really hope Deana wins.. but im doubting it even with her as the fave

MeMyselfAndI · 11-08-2012, 03:34 PM

Alex was bookies fav by quite alot

Jay&Aaron swapped places at around 3-1
Alex had like 11/8 for the last week

MeMyselfAndI · 11-08-2012, 03:34 PM

Alex was bookies fav by quite alot

Jay&Aaron swapped places at around 3-1
Alex had like 11/8 for the last week

alex_front2 · 11-08-2012, 03:37 PM

Bookies arw not that good at setting odds for reality compared to sport. Plus it also depends how much money goes on. LukeS is about 33-1 ie no chance, but if someone bets crazy money eg £1000 his odds will tumble evrn though in reality he hasnt done anything more entertaining. Its better to be close 2nd or 3rd favourite.

JTM45 · 11-08-2012, 03:39 PM

So maybe Aaron wasn't the favourite then.

..............but Deana IS going to win!!!!!

I'd actually be equally happy with Adam winning but i just don't know if he's quite got the numbers.
I do really like Luke A but he's been pretty much an extra in the outsiders, a supporting act, not the star.

alex_front2 · 11-08-2012, 03:40 PM

Also think BB misinterprets HM popularity in a too simplistic way. If Scott had stayed then hed be made a 2 or 3 favorite - even though like Tom last year hes a camp likeable guy but has no fanbase.

JTM45 · 11-08-2012, 03:44 PM

I think Alex was basically (voting-wise) last years equivalent of Scott.
Everyone was so sure that she had all of this massive support that just didn't materialize when it was needed.

I really think Scott thought he had it in the bag this year (he had a massive gameplan!) but while a lot of people liked him they all thought that his hardcore supporters had his back in the voting and they just didn't exist in the end.

alex_front2 · 11-08-2012, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTM45

So maybe Aaron wasn't the favourite then.

..............but Deana IS going to win!!!!!

I'd actually be equally happy with Adam winning but i just don't know if he's quite got the numbers.
I do really like Luke A but he's been pretty much an extra in the outsiders, a supporting act, not the star.

Not necessarily. Alex looked a forgone conclusion bookies fav by far...only third. The big problem is what I call the "likeable ghost" HM: the HM that nobody hates, everyone thinks is likeable, BB tries to promote them as a 'pet fav', odds to win tumble but they still lose. This applies to Scott and last year Tom n Alex.

With Deana her votes will come msinly from hee fanbase. Not casual viewers who prefer LukeA -who has a megafanbase of his own - Adam and Sara. A poor edit will affect her the most, this last week she may not have lost too many fans but would not have gained many. The big winner was LukeS who people feel sorry for.

If LukeS and Sara are evicted first most of their votes will go to Adam n LukeA. Deana will have to rely on her fanbase voting like mad. Deana is no way as popular as Aaron last year and has tougher competition her 2 pals. Plus theres the lack of FB voting of which benefiited her the most due to her more globally diverse appeal. Deana could easily end up 2nd or even 3rd.

alex_front2 · 11-08-2012, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTM45

I think Alex was basically (voting-wise) last years equivalent of Scott.
Everyone was so sure that she had all of this massive support that just didn't materialize when it was needed.

I really think Scott thought he had it in the bag this year (he had a massive gameplan!) but while a lot of people liked him they all thought that his hardcore supporters had his back in the voting and they just didn't exist in the end.

In VTS era its harder to sit on fence, fly under radar and then gain support.

If you're a HM and you get into rows, retaliate against bitching, take a stance people will identify with you, become interested and engage defend and support you and therefore vote for you. Deana has been the most 'involved in SLs' HL this year, hence her support.

Scotts done bugg*r else besides rapscallion and hair styles so BBOTS has to go on and on about these. He twigged after Saras mums nomination that he was wallpaper and became camper and more contrived in DR. Even Caz in Dish on Side said this.