[Mokka]

US elections are always practically 50/50 split... in all recent history. It's a country divided down the middle politically. But this election I don't think people are voting based on party. People voting Trump are basically either hard core right wing Conservatives....or disgruntled non partisans who have become anti-establishment....and know he is possible the worst thing that could happen to the country...but want to vote him in for just that fact...to see the country burn ...so to speak.

I hope it's Hilary .... but my gut is telling me it will be Trump.

[bitontheslide]

Originally Posted by Jamie89

I have a horrible feeling Trump will win I'm not that keen on Hillary so I'd kind of be here for the comedy of a Trump presidency, but he's such a disgusting ass-hat it wouldn't even be funny so I hope I'm wrong.

There have been disgusting ass hats in the presidency before ... they just covered it up a bit better before the vote .... this election, Trump just doesn't care

Its not that long ago where Bush junior got elected, and that man was an absolute fool ... he was shown to not have a clue what he was talking about in the run up to the election, he was ridiculed, laughed at, scorned, you name it. Al Gore had all the experience and "intelligence", but Bush still won by a whisker. There is precedence.

[Jack_]

All logic, reason and data would suggest Hillary has this wrapped up - and I sure hope she does, but recent history has taught us not to be so convinced that political certainties will become political realities. The world is changing, anti-establishment sentiment is increasing amongst the disenfranchised in numerous countries and I'm no longer willing to be sure of something until the day it actually happens.

I'd encourage anyone who's interested in this to read this article by film director Michael Moore. It's a fascinating read that articulates a lot of my thoughts:

5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

Friends:

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly - “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to soothe yourself with the facts - “77% of the electorate are women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of them!“ - or logic - “people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against their own best interests!“ - is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma. Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think, “oh, a tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?” because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with a gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness reports on 9/11 said “a small plane accidentally flew into the World Trade Center.” We want to - we need to - hope for the best because, frankly, life is already a **** show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad news. So our mental state goes to default when something scary is actually, truly happening. The first people plowed down by the truck in Nice spent their final moments on earth waving at the driver whom they thought had simply lost control of his truck, trying to tell him that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they shouted. “There are people on the sidewalk!”

Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen - and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way out of the mess we’re in.

Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Things are better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and lesbians can get married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal position on just about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay for women - check. Abortion should be legal - check. Stronger environmental laws - check. More gun control - check. Legalize marijuana - check. A huge shift has taken place - just ask the socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies the problem for November - who is going to have the most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to this question. Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Tom, Dick and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and Billy Bob Joe) has cast his ballot? That’s right. That’s the high level of danger we’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Hillary TV ads, or outfacting him in the debates or Libertarians siphoning votes away from Trump is going to stop his mojo.

Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:

1. Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes - Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states - but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England - broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here. Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson and just says whatever **** he can make up to convince the masses that this is their chance! To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their American Dream! And now The Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to clean house! You don’t have to agree with him! You don’t even have to like him! He is your personal Molotov cocktail to throw right into the center of the bastards who did this to you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS YOUR MESSENGER!

And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

2. The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them. Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!

That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male. There is a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a ****in’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!

3. The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary - a lot - and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on The Button, and that is that. Done and done.

Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump - it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.

4. The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton - we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ‘08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” - meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS. Returning to the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket - that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.

5. The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.

Yours,
Michael Moore

Huffington Post

[Amy Jade]

Our Hills xx

[EspeonBB]

Up until about last week I did think Trump was going to win but I think his flop debate performance hurt him a lot and these new tapes actually seem to have had an effect on him unlike the rest of his scandals so I think (and hope) Hillary will win

[arista]

"I think he will still win. Because... well... look at the world. Look at the way people's minds are being swayed"


Yes TS
Bang On Right

[Niamh.]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Agree.



Agree agree agree agree.


However, I think he will still win. Because... well... look at the world. Look at the way people's minds are being swayed. There are some very clear indicators of the direction of all of this. And it will be a disaster... but since when does that mean it won't happen?

Well it's a sad state of affairs that any women especially would vote for him after listening to that tape of him

[the truth]

shes a warmongering pig and hes an offensive pig....enjoy

[the truth]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

Well it's a sad state of affairs that any women especially would vote for him after listening to that tape of him

it was disgusting but her male hate sexism and her basket of deplorables was even worse, basically slandering 100 million americans as scumbags

[GiRTh]

HRC but it will be close.

Been reading and hearing on American news channels the strategy of releasing these stories about Trump so close to election usually starts with the least offensive leading up to the worst just days before the election. If that is true then all those so outraged by the releasing of Trumps three pages of his Tax return last weekend and now this weekends story should save that outrage. It looks like there are more stories to come about Trump.

[Jamie89]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

There have been disgusting ass hats in the presidency before ... they just covered it up a bit better before the vote .... this election, Trump just doesn't care

Its not that long ago where Bush junior got elected, and that man was an absolute fool ... he was shown to not have a clue what he was talking about in the run up to the election, he was ridiculed, laughed at, scorned, you name it. Al Gore had all the experience and "intelligence", but Bush still won by a whisker. There is precedence.

That's true but they should be limiting ass hats wherever possible. An ass hat quota of 1 president for every 5 let's say if they really must, which would mean Trump would just have to wait!

Originally Posted by Jack_

All logic, reason and data would suggest Hillary has this wrapped up - and I sure hope she does, but recent history has taught us not to be so convinced that political certainties will become political realities. The world is changing, anti-establishment sentiment is increasing amongst the disenfranchised in numerous countries and I'm no longer willing to be sure of something until the day it actually happens.

I'd encourage anyone who's interested in this to read this article by film director Michael Moore. It's a fascinating read that articulates a lot of my thoughts:



Huffington Post

I love Michael Moore and he makes a lot of sense here but he's been majorly wrong before when he's also spoken sense (I seem to remember him being certain that Bush wouldn't win his second term)... so there's still hope! Great article though.

[Shaun]

70% sure Trump will win. The dumbass "he says what he thinks" mentality will swing it for him and I cannot believe the Democrats didn't pick Bernie

[JoshBB]

After the way this year has gone, genuinely wouldn't be shocked at a Trump victory.

[Firewire]

I think Trump could win, the fact so many people have spoken out against him makes people rally for him even more. People hate being told what to do. I think that's why Brexit happened. If Cameron had supported it I think we would've remained...

But I really hope Hillary wins

[Northern Monkey]

You've gotta weigh up the safest option.
I mean i reckon Trump will stop grabbing vaginas if he got in office.
Hilary will kill people with military might,Will impose a no fly zone over Syria which will put the west in direct conflict with Russia.There is quite a high chance she will kill us all.She scares me more than Bush jnr.

[bitontheslide]

with the prospect of America getting its first woman president, there should be a palpable air of excitement at the possibility. There is no excitement, no national will for it to become a reality. People don't want her. She is going to lose.

[Tom4784]

Originally Posted by Northern Monkey

You've gotta weigh up the safest option.
I mean i reckon Trump will stop grabbing vaginas if he got in office.
Hilary will kill people with military might,Will impose a no fly zone over Syria which will put the west in direct conflict with Russia.There is quite a high chance she will kill us all.She scares me more than Bush jnr.

Saying you want the safe option and then supporting Trump doesn't make a lick of sense.

Hillary, in truth, is no more or less corrupt than most presidents. It's a dirty job and no one comes away from it clean. I'd take a corrupt politician over a mad man any day.

Trump would cause more international incidents than Hillary ever could. Hillary's cut from the same cloth as most other politicians, she's not likely to rock the boat and things will likely stay the same.

Trump is a man that's dangerously vain, has a terrible temperament and a fragile ego. He is not a smart man and anyone can run rings around him. All that is a recipe for disaster. He is not a leader and he shouldn't be anywhere near the White House at any time.

At least with Hillary she's likely to get impeached which gives us a chance of getting someone better as a replacement. Supporting Trump is madness.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Dezzy

Saying you want the safe option and then supporting Trump doesn't make a lick of sense.

Hillary, in truth, is no more or less corrupt than most presidents. It's a dirty job and no one comes away from it clean. I'd take a corrupt politician over a mad man any day.

Trump would cause more international incidents than Hillary ever could. Hillary's cut from the same cloth as most other politicians, she's not likely to rock the boat and things will likely stay the same.

Trump is a man that's dangerously vain, has a terrible temperament and a fragile ego. He is not a smart man and anyone can run rings around him. All that is a recipe for disaster. He is not a leader and he shouldn't be anywhere near the White House at any time.

At least with Hillary she's likely to get impeached which gives us a chance of getting someone better as a replacement. Supporting Trump is madness.

Indeed. He is a petty, weak little man with a very large ego. He has been desperately clamouring to "make himself big" in meaningless ways throughout his entire life.

Giving a man like that real, actual power of any kind is a disaster waiting to happen.

[Ammi]

...Hilary is establishment/she's politics and her decisions would be made in the establishment way as they always have and not by her alone..I think that she's much less dangerous than Trump because he's more of a loose cannon and ego driven...I don't think he's a safe option at all, I think he would be a very negative option because that's what he largely incites, negativity, prejudice, lack of tolerance and breeding suspicion...all he wants to do is build a wall to wrap himself in...walls have a way of spreading and more walls against neighbours and etc are built ..his world is all about blocking out and elite...and will he listen to 'the establishment' ...can he be restrained and contained by 'the establishment'... he's too unpredictable I think and too much of an ego...


..I would like Hilary to win, she's the far safer option..I fear though that it'll be Trump..mind you, if she can't win against him and that's how it is, then she really never deserved it...this should have been an easy victory and never a close race....

[Ammi]

Originally Posted by Jack_

All logic, reason and data would suggest Hillary has this wrapped up - and I sure hope she does, but recent history has taught us not to be so convinced that political certainties will become political realities. The world is changing, anti-establishment sentiment is increasing amongst the disenfranchised in numerous countries and I'm no longer willing to be sure of something until the day it actually happens.

I'd encourage anyone who's interested in this to read this article by film director Michael Moore. It's a fascinating read that articulates a lot of my thoughts:



Huffington Post

...an interesting read, Jack...(and I think sadly that he's right in that Trump could very much win this..)...it's a time of many fears and many worries for many people and a time when it all collides much more to make this such a possibility ...a feeling for a need for 'different'...but the different of Trump is sadly the wrong sort of different..anyways, I was reading this article yesterday also..I won't post the actual article because it's primarily about racism but there is also a bit in there which touches on 'the Trump Effect' as well...


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/why-much-b...130707641.html

[Ammi]

...if it was Hilary, would Bill be known as The First Gentleman..?...

[the truth]

trump won the 2nd debate by a large margin, hilary was asleep at the wheel
so hes still got a strong chance

[Tom4784]

Trump is a mad man, the fact that anyone can look at him and think 'he should be the leader of one of the most powerful countries in the world' is honestly terrifying.

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by Brother Leon

Hilary Clinton. Then all the media attention will be on her and she will be impeached before the end of her term.

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by Ammi

...Hilary is establishment/she's politics and her decisions would be made in the establishment way as they always have and not by her alone..I think that she's much less dangerous than Trump because he's more of a loose cannon and ego driven...I don't think he's a safe option at all, I think he would be a very negative option because that's what he largely incites, negativity, prejudice, lack of tolerance and breeding suspicion...all he wants to do is build a wall to wrap himself in...walls have a way of spreading and more walls against neighbours and etc are built ..his world is all about blocking out and elite...and will he listen to 'the establishment' ...can he be restrained and contained by 'the establishment'... he's too unpredictable I think and too much of an ego...


..I would like Hilary to win, she's the far safer option..I fear though that it'll be Trump..mind you, if she can't win against him and that's how it is, then she really never deserved it...this should have been an easy victory and never a close race....

What an EXCELLENT point Ammi - If Trump is so bad, then WHY isn't Hilary a country mile ahead in the polls? And if he is as bad as she - and others - claim, then the fact that it really is such a close run thing, speaks volumes about the US public's very poor perception of Hilary.

As I think that they are both crud, that realisation kind of comforts me.