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Old 26-10-2021, 09:06 AM #1
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Default Conspiracy theories, their roots and appeal

Merriam-Webster dictionary defines a conspiracy theory as;

"A theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators; A theory asserting that a secret of great importance is being kept from the public."

(https://www.merriam-webster.com/dict...iracy%20theory)


But of course, this is a vast over-simplification of something quite psychologically complex. If we want to understand the thinking of the conspiracy theorist, there are a multitude of factors to consider. I've been hobby-reading around this for a couple of weeks and it's actually quite fascinating, and HUGELY relevant in understanding the social and political psychology of the world as we find it in 2021 (US elections, Covid, Climate change etc.). The below is a very good read for those who have the time and inclination. I will warn though it's a very long paper. The excerpt I'm including here believe it or not ( ) is only a small section.

Quote:
Conspiracy theories appear to provide broad, internally consistent explanations that allow people to preserve beliefs in the face of uncertainty and contradiction. Consistent with this analysis, research suggests that belief in conspiracy theories is stronger under conditions of uncertainty (van Prooijen & Jostmann, 2013). Further, belief in conspiracy theories appears to be stronger when people perceive patterns in randomness (van Prooijen, Douglas, & de Inocencio, 2018; van der Wal, Sutton, Lange, & Braga, 2018; Whitson & Galinsky, 2008; but see Dieguez, Wagner-Egger, & Gauvrit, 2015). Conspiracy belief is also stronger among people who consistently seek patterns and meaning in their environment, such as believers in paranormal and supernatural phenomena (Bruder et al., 2013; Darwin, Neave, & Holmes, 2011; Drinkwater, Dagnall, & Parker, 2012; Leiser, Duani, & Wagner-Egger, 2017; Oliver & Wood, 2014a, 2018). It is also stronger when events are especially large-scale or significant and when small-scale, mundane explanations therefore seem unsatisfactory (Leman & Cinnirella, 2013).

People who overestimate their ability to understand complex causal phenomena are also prone to conspiracy beliefs (Vitriol & Marsh, 2018). Conspiracy beliefs have also been linked to the need for cognitive closure (Marchlewska, Cichocka, & Kossowska, 2018; Leman & Cinnirella, 2013), especially when events lack a clear official explanation. Conspiracy beliefs have also been linked to feelings of boredom (Brotherton & Eser, 2015). However, conspiracy theories might appear to satisfy some epistemic motives at the expense of others. For example, conspiracy belief has been linked to the conjunction fallacy (Brotherton & French, 2015; Dagnall, Denovon, Drinkwater, Parker, & Clough, 2017), which is an error of probabilistic reasoning whereby people overestimate the likelihood of co-occurring events (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983).

Other researchers have shown that projection of one’s own personal beliefs onto others is associated with conspiracy belief—that is, the belief that “they conspire” is in part the 8 Douglas et al. result of the belief that “I would conspire” (Douglas & Sutton, 2011). Swami, Voracek, Stieger, Tran, and Furnham (2014; see also Stĺhl & van Prooijen, 2018) found that lower levels of analytic thinking predicted conspiracy beliefs. Mikušková (2017) found that student teachers high in conspiracy beliefs were more likely to score lower in rational thinking style. Douglas, Sutton, Callan, Dawtry, and Harvey (2016) found that hypersensitive agency detection — the tendency to attribute agency and intentionality where it does not (or is unlikely to) exist — predicts conspiracy beliefs (see also Brotherton & French, 2015; van der Tempel & Alcock, 2015). McHoskey (1995) found that conspiracy beliefs may be in part a product of biased assimilation—accepting information that confirms one’s views and scrutinizing information that disconfirms one’s views (see also Thorson, 2015).

Other cognitive processes linked to conspiracy beliefs involve a tendency to accept epistemically unwarranted beliefs (Lobato, Mendoza, Sims, & Chin, 2014), a quasi-religious mentality (Franks, Bangerter, & Bauer 2013; Wagner-Egger, Delouvee, Gauvrit, & Dieguez, 2018), and lower levels of intelligence (Stieger, Gumhalter, Tran, Voracek, & Swami, 2013). Finally, conspiracy beliefs have been linked to factors such as nonclinical delusional thinking (Dagnall, Drinkwater, Parker, Denovan, & Parton, 2015) and schizotypy (Barron, Morgan, Towell, Altemeyer, & Swami, 2014; Bruder et al., 2013; Darwin et al., 2011; Swami, Pietschnig, Tran, Nader, Stiener, & Voracek, 2013; van der Tempel & Alcock, 2015). Overall, there is evidence that conspiracy theories appear to appeal to individuals who seek accuracy and/or meaning, but perhaps lack the cognitive tools or experience problems that prevent them from being able to find accuracy and meaning via other more rational means.
The full paper takes a much deeper dive into each area of study.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...111/pops.12568

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Old 26-10-2021, 09:13 AM #2
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I'm sure the likelihood of a couple of these theories being true is strong but they get buried so deep with false ones then it's impossible to sound rational if you believe one of them. I think the Jeffrey Epstein stuff though proves that, it sounds like a massive conspiracy that the FBI were covering up a child sex trafficking ring to protect rich and powerful people but it turned out to be true, not to mention his "suicide"
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:20 AM #3
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Next you should read up on and study the principles of Joseph Goebbels propaganda. You'll realise that a lot of that is going on in 2021.
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:27 AM #4
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cough

*Madeline McCann*
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:30 AM #5
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cough

*Madeline McCann*
That's hardly a conspiracy theory, that's an unsolved crime and an opinion on what actually happened. Statistically in fact it's more likely for a parent/relative/friend to have something to do with harming a child than a stranger. One could argue that the abduction is in fact the conspiracy
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:39 AM #6
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cough

*Madeline McCann*
Madeleine McCann being kidnapped by a predatory paedophile (sometimes the theory is a criminal child sex trafficking group) is, in this case, actually the conspiracy theory. There is no evidence of either scenario. Certainly, the theory that her parents were involved in covering up her disappearance is also largely hypothetical but statistically more likely than the other offered theories.

The actual bare facts of the McCann case is that she is missing, presumed dead, and the circumstances are unknown. "She was kidnapped" is simply not established fact or even an explanation with any supporting evidence whatsoever.
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:40 AM #7
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That's hardly a conspiracy theory, that's an unsolved crime and an opinion on what actually happened. Statistically in fact it's more likely for a parent/relative/friend to have something to do with harming a child than a stranger. One could argue that the abduction is in fact the conspiracy
half this forum thinks her parents killed her by accident and are covering it up

and that they know better than the detectives who have worked on the case for years




bang on conspiracy theory of the worst kind
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:41 AM #8
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It makes people feel special if they believe they’re part of a small group of people who ‘know’ something the majority don’t, I feel sorry for them really, because it must take a personal with a big mental vulnerability to be able to be groomed by these conspiracy groups, to believe these often insane and easily debunked theories
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:43 AM #9
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This is actually a great time in history to be alive, we're at the beginning of a new age. The battle for who rules the new World is happening all around us.

I actually think we're in wartime right now, but it's a new kind of warfare. I think Covid is an act of war, I just don't know who's behind it. What I do know is that the people are gradually rising up all over the World.

Some say it's the information wars.

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Old 26-10-2021, 09:46 AM #10
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Next you should read up on and study the principles of Joseph Goebbels propaganda. You'll realise that a lot of that is going on in 2021.
Specifically control through fear / generating "fear of the other" to distract from totalitarian goals? I don't necessarily disagree but these principles hardly originate with Goebbels, they're as old as civilisation itself.

What I would say though, is that current conspiracy peddling is a symptom of that. 2021 (mainly US-based) conspiracies (US election fraud, COVID is a hoax, Climate change isn't real, 5G is Chinese spies etc.) are tools designed to promote and further division and tribalism, dressed up as truth, and sold to gullible people with poor critical reasoning skills.
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:52 AM #11
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Specifically control through fear / generating "fear of the other" to distract from totalitarian goals? I don't necessarily disagree but these principles hardly originate with Goebbels, they're as old as civilisation itself.

What I would say though, is that current conspiracy peddling is a symptom of that. 2021 (mainly US-based) conspiracies (US election fraud, COVID is a hoax, Climate change isn't real, 5G is Chinese spies etc.) are tools designed to promote and further division and tribalism, dressed up as truth, and sold to gullible people with poor critical reasoning skills.
Religion was invented to make large groups of people achieve common goals and not kill each other
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Old 26-10-2021, 09:55 AM #12
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I don't really care anymore if I'm called a conspiracy theorist to me it's just my opinion on what I've seen. What I think I am is a truth seeking theorist.

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Old 26-10-2021, 09:56 AM #13
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I don't really care if I'm called a conspiracy theorist to me it's just my opinion on what I've seen. What I think I am is a truth seeking theorist.


Naz on LBC does
he cut a caller off fast
after the caller called him that
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Old 26-10-2021, 10:04 AM #14
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Religion was invented to make large groups of people achieve common goals and not kill each other
Largely to unite disparate warring tribes under one banner, yes. To achieve larger goals I agree with - I wouldn't necessarily call them "common goals", they'd more accurately be described as the goals that best benefit the leadership. The other part... I don't personally believe that having them not kill each other was ever part of the motivation.

The emergence of "quasireligion" in the late 20th/early 21st centuries is fascinating (from a sociopsychological perspective). Terrifying from a "person who actually has to live in this world" perspective .
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:17 AM #15
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Madeleine McCann being kidnapped by a predatory paedophile (sometimes the theory is a criminal child sex trafficking group) is, in this case, actually the conspiracy theory. There is no evidence of either scenario. Certainly, the theory that her parents were involved in covering up her disappearance is also largely hypothetical but statistically more likely than the other offered theories.

The actual bare facts of the McCann case is that she is missing, presumed dead, and the circumstances are unknown. "She was kidnapped" is simply not established fact or even an explanation with any supporting evidence whatsoever.
And actually there is some evidence to suggest that the parents were involved if you take the Dogs into consideration
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:19 AM #16
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half this forum thinks her parents killed her by accident and are covering it up

and that they know better than the detectives who have worked on the case for years




bang on conspiracy theory of the worst kind
The case was shelved in Portugal with the parents as people of interest, it's only the UK Police who hadn't considered them suspects and I'm not sure they even looked into that possibility which seems a bit irresponsible, surely every angle should be looked into
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:23 AM #17
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half this forum thinks her parents killed her by accident and are covering it up

and that they know better than the detectives who have worked on the case for years




bang on conspiracy theory of the worst kind
It is no more of a conspiracy theory than the theory that she was taken by a stranger or group. The case is unsolved.
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:25 AM #18
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It is no more of a conspiracy theory than the theory that she was taken by a stranger or group. The case is unsolved.
yes but there isnt tons of youtube videos, websites, facebook groups all dedicated to that possibility

unlike the "the parents did it coz they is posh and rich" brigade

Here is an actual professional detective who has worked on the case and seen all the evidence

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Old 26-10-2021, 11:26 AM #19
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Worth pointing out at this point; a hypothetical discussion of possibilities is NOT a conspiracy theory; an important part of that transition is the level of certainty of those holding the theory and how specific they are in those beliefs. That is, an insistance on "what is the case" rather than "what is within the realms of possibility".
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:27 AM #20
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yes but there isnt tons of youtube videos, websites, facebook groups all dedicated to that possibility
There are entire feature-length+ professional documentaries.
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:32 AM #21
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yes but there isnt tons of youtube videos, websites, facebook groups all dedicated to that possibility

unlike the "the parents did it coz they is posh and rich" brigade

Here is an actual professional detective who has worked on the case and seen all the evidence

And the actual Lead detective in Portugal thinks they're guilty
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Katie Hopkins reveals epilepsy made her suicidal - and says she identifies as a MAN
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Just because she is a giant cock, doesn't make her a man.
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:36 AM #22
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And the actual Lead detective in Portugal thinks they're guilty
His job is not to think people are guilty its to prove with evidence

He may also believe there is an invisible man in the sky who made the world
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:41 AM #23
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His job is not to think people are guilty its to prove with evidence

He may also believe there is an invisible man in the sky who made the world
He had evidence from the dogs and suspicious behaviour from the McCanns such as not answering straight forward questions, doing the opposite of what the Police advised in their appeals such as revealing her unusual eye marking

as for your second paragraph, pretty hyperbolic
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Katie Hopkins reveals epilepsy made her suicidal - and says she identifies as a MAN
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Just because she is a giant cock, doesn't make her a man.

Last edited by Niamh.; 26-10-2021 at 11:44 AM.
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His job is not to think people are guilty its to prove with evidence

He may also believe there is an invisible man in the sky who made the world
So the professional who has seen all the evidence months after it was collected and agrees with your train of thought is credible but the professional who worked the case as it happened isn't credible and could believe in God? Riiigghht
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Old 26-10-2021, 11:43 AM #25
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So the professional who has seen all the evidence months after it was collected and agrees with your train of thought is credible but the professional who worked the case as it happened isn't credible and could believe in God? Riiigghht
Seems about right.....
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Katie Hopkins reveals epilepsy made her suicidal - and says she identifies as a MAN
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