From seeing some of the stuff that James has said on live feed (a lot of dumb things) I would say Natalie will win, but judging by what has been shown on the highlights episodes then it probably will be James again unfortunately as that's what the casual viewers see. Natalie did get the first care package though if that's anything to go by. It'll be between the two of them anyway most likely, then third spot between Nicole/Paul probs.
Edit: Sorry for hijacking your thread with this Jason