[alex_front2]

Conor has usurped Luke S as 'head of insiders' and is the only one realustically who has a chance of winning.

Conor fans are also highly defined and single-minded. 14 yr old Derry girls wont give a stuff about voting for Ashleigh.

Ashleigh Luke S and Caroline will sttuggle to poll a combined 10%. Conor fans will NOT give Luke S strategic votes to 'get rid of Deana or Adam'.

Whilst the Outsiders are more popular as a group and individuals there is heavy overlap in strategic voting eg Deana fans sparing votes for Adam and Luke A. Although Deana is ahead within the Outsiders shes not really a 'head of outsiders' (some may say shes not even an outsider). Deana's popular but so is Adam and the Becky row has reignited popularity in Luke A. So split votes leaving the wannabe epilator rapist on a clean home run to top votes.