[joeysteele]

I am left thinking the same as in the 2010 election, the Conservative party should have stormed to an overall majority in the 2010 election.
A discredited Govt and a PM who was a laughing stock yet they failed and failed badly to come near an overall majority.

Here too in this by-election, with the Lib dems near hated all over the rest of the Country and also having such a bad campaign dogged by the scandal row, with a leader in Clegg all over the place with his explanations of same. Yet again though the Conservatives failed and failed badly to rise to the challenge of this by-election despite throwing all its really big guns into the campaign.

Eastleigh is far and away from being any kind of barometer seat,but for the Conservatives to lose 13.9% of support doesn't bode well,especially from this seat, as to the next election.

Well done to UKIP on their rise and although I do think some votes will go back to other parties at the 2015 election,I do feel UKIP's showing is significant to suggest they are a likely strong force now in Eastleigh.

Labour's vote was squeezed,yet actually rose marginally despite that,I do feel the Lib Dems have beaten UKIP only with the help of Labour voters.
For the Lib Dems too though,their support in Eastleigh fell by a bit more than the Conservatives from 2010 so it doesn't leave that much to crow about for them either.

I guess with only 2 years to go to the 2015 election, the momentum in Eastleigh is with UKIP, if Eastleigh is a seat where the voters want a referendum and harder stance on Europe then it would seem the voters there neither believe or trust David Cameron as to that.
It now for sure doesn't look like a seat that the Conservatives can possibly win in 2015 and if that is the case, they have no chance of real success in 2015.
In fact, on this showing they would lose seats left,right and centre.

I am surprised the Lib Dems won this by-election,if I was Clegg though,I would be very worried still as to the Nation at large as to voting in 2015.