[joeysteele]

I am left thinking the same as in the 2010 election, the Conservative party should have stormed to an overall majority in the 2010 election.
A discredited Govt and a PM who was a laughing stock yet they failed and failed badly to come near an overall majority.

Here too in this by-election, with the Lib dems near hated all over the rest of the Country and also having such a bad campaign dogged by the scandal row, with a leader in Clegg all over the place with his explanations of same. Yet again though the Conservatives failed and failed badly to rise to the challenge of this by-election despite throwing all its really big guns into the campaign.

Eastleigh is far and away from being any kind of barometer seat,but for the Conservatives to lose 13.9% of support doesn't bode well,especially from this seat, as to the next election.

Well done to UKIP on their rise and although I do think some votes will go back to other parties at the 2015 election,I do feel UKIP's showing is significant to suggest they are a likely strong force now in Eastleigh.

Labour's vote was squeezed,yet actually rose marginally despite that,I do feel the Lib Dems have beaten UKIP only with the help of Labour voters.
For the Lib Dems too though,their support in Eastleigh fell by a bit more than the Conservatives from 2010 so it doesn't leave that much to crow about for them either.

I guess with only 2 years to go to the 2015 election, the momentum in Eastleigh is with UKIP, if Eastleigh is a seat where the voters want a referendum and harder stance on Europe then it would seem the voters there neither believe or trust David Cameron as to that.
It now for sure doesn't look like a seat that the Conservatives can possibly win in 2015 and if that is the case, they have no chance of real success in 2015.
In fact, on this showing they would lose seats left,right and centre.

I am surprised the Lib Dems won this by-election,if I was Clegg though,I would be very worried still as to the Nation at large as to voting in 2015.

[arista]

"I guess with only 2 years to go to the 2015 election, the momentum in Eastleigh is with UKIP"


It Depends
on how many Migrants come over to there
and England

[Omah]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Here too in this by-election, with the Lib dems near hated all over the rest of the Country and also having such a bad campaign dogged by the scandal row, with s that mea leader in Clegg all over the place with his explanations of same.

"near-hated all over the rest of the Country " - a grandiose statement but what does that mean?

[joeysteele]

I would say the Lib Dems have little to really be confident about as to this result.
On a turnout of over 52%,(quite a good turnout in a by-election), down a bit from the 69% of 2010,they saw a loss of 14% as to their support from the votes cast in 2010, in what is described as a fortress area for them this is not a really convincing result.
The majority is down to around 1800 from being over 3000 in 2010,repeated across this country in an election would see the Lib Dems in big trouble.

In Scotland, the Lib Dems are looked on with intense dislike for inflicting a Conservative led Govt on that part of the UK.
As in other by-elections it is clear Lib Dem support has near evaporated,in the last by-election they were humiliated.
If I was Clegg, I would have been relieved that this campaign ended when it did, a few more days or another week may well have seen them lose Eastleigh altogether.

I have to smile too at the comments on the news that Labour has problems because of this result too. I would dare bet the Lib Dems got some Labour votes as they did in 2010 to help them beat the Conservative here.
However, in elections voters are a lot more in the know than they get credit for, they knew Labour had no chance whatsoever in this seat.
Labour's best chances in Eastleigh came in 1955 and 1959 when there was no Liberal candidate standing anyway.
Then again in 1966 when they came closest only being beaten by 700 votes.

Tim Farron stated that in the 1994 by-election,Labour came 2nd,indeed they did, nearly 17% behind the winning candidate though, so it is very far from being Labour territory

I am not so sure this is a flash in the pan for UKIP, their political status has been increased by this result I think and I wouldn't bet against them maybe taking the seat in 2015.

There are a great many potentially damaging policies to come into effect that will cause hardship and further dismay to a good many voters during the rest of this year and even into next year.
Things that the already turned off voters as to the Lib Dems will further realise are policies which are only happening because the Lib Dems fully supported them.

The problems the Conservatives have following this result are likely the same as has been felt for a good while now, no way can they get,or even come near, any kind of overall majority in the next election.
I personally, certainly cannot see any chance of that happening.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

As in other by-elections it is clear Lib Dem support has near evaporated.

What does "Lib Dem support has near evaporated" mean .....

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

"I guess with only 2 years to go to the 2015 election, the momentum in Eastleigh is with UKIP"


It Depends
on how many Migrants come over to there
and England

I think that is a very valid point arista, it will be a likely major issue there.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

I would dare bet the Lib Dems got some Labour votes as they did in 2010 to help them beat the Conservative here.

I wouldn't - the figures just don't bear out that statement :

Turnout was 52.7%, down from 69.3% at the 2010 general election, but nevertheless Labour only lost 1065 votes, while the LibDems lost 11624 votes, the Conservatives lost 10543 votes and Ukip gained 9638 votes.

[Kizzy]

Well I for one think that this 'scandal' dogging the liberals was very well timed...and I would go so far as to say the 'thatcherites' are behind it....

Let's pray that there is another huge gaff by UKIP in the next 2yrs and one of their number put their foot in their mouth (again) about some issue and are discredited.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Omah

What does "Lib Dem support has near evaporated" mean .....

What do you mean what does he mean?

he means what he said obviously, Libdem support has waned, what's not to understand omah?

[Omah]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

What do you mean what does he mean?

he means what he said obviously, Libdem support has waned, what's not to understand omah?

"evaporated" does NOT mean "waned" ......

Obviously you don't understand the difference .....

[the truth]

that alleged sex scandal hasnt hurt the libs , clearly the voters feel its yet to be proven and perhaps the fact it was a decade ago too is a factr...perhaps too people are more concerned with the current issues

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Omah

"evaporated" does NOT mean "waned" ......

Obviously you don't understand the difference .....

reduce, shrink, decline, subside, fall, dwindle...

dematerialize,weaken, dissipate, fade, disperse,

Any of these any better for you omah? Obviously you can ask for some more if you wish

[MTVN]

It might have waned but this does show that the Lib Dems may be a lot more resilient than given credit for, they had literally everything going against them at this by election and still pulled off a victory, hammering the Tories and Labour. They've probably weathered the worst of the coalition now and I wouldn't be surprised if they retain a lot more seats than people were expecting them to in 2015

[Omah]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

reduce, shrink, decline, subside, fall, dwindle...

dematerialize,weaken, dissipate, fade, disperse,

Any of these any better for you omah? Obviously you can ask for some more if you wish

Just the RIGHT word will do, so that MEANING is communicated correctly - all else is verbosity and obfuscation .....

[Omah]

Originally Posted by MTVN

It might have waned but this does show that the Lib Dems may be a lot more resilient than given credit for, they had literally everything going against them at this by election and still pulled off a victory, hammering the Tories and Labour. They've probably weathered the worst of the coalition now and I wouldn't be surprised if they retain a lot more seats than people were expecting them to in 2015

In the opinion polls, the LibDems are still running at 13% of party popularity, which is where they've been (more or less) since the heady days of June 2010 so, you're right, resilience does matter for survival.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Omah

Just the RIGHT word will do, so that MEANING is communicated correctly - all else is verbosity and obfuscation .....

It was the right word omah, maybe you should invest in a thesaurus?
Are you intending to come across as supercilious?

Let's just get back to the topic.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

It was the right word omah, maybe you should invest in a thesaurus?
Are you intending to come across as supercilious?

Let's just get back to the topic.

The moon may wane but, AFAIK, it does not evaporate :

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/wane

wane (wn)
intr.v. waned, wan·ing, wanes
1. To decrease gradually in size, amount, intensity, or degree; decline.
2. To exhibit a decreasing illuminated area from full moon to new moon.
3. To approach an end.
n.
1. The act or process of gradually declining or diminishing.
2.
a. A time or phase of gradual decrease.
b. The period of the decrease of the moon's illuminated visible surface.
3. A defective edge of a board caused by remaining bark or a beveled end.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/evaporate

e·vap·o·rate (-vp-rt)
v. e·vap·o·rat·ed, e·vap·o·rat·ing, e·vap·o·rates
v.tr.
1.
a. To convert or change into a vapor.
b. To draw off in the form of vapor.
2. To draw moisture from, as by heating, leaving only the dry solid portion.
3. To deposit (a metal) on a substrate by vacuum sublimation.
v.intr.
1.
a. To change into vapor.
b. To pass off in or as vapor.
2. To produce vapor.
3. To disappear; vanish

Thany you for your intervention, but my grasp of the Engish language is actually quite good .....

[Livia]

The LibDems won because UKIP voters, disgruntled with the Conservatives, split the vote. The gay marriage bill, more than any other single issue in years, has turned a lot of older Conservatives against the party and many have taken the trouble to write, resign and say they're going to vote UKIP. It's not been a surprise, and there is certainly no real victory for anyone.

[Kizzy]

http://politicsinspires.org/predicti...h-by-election/

Is Liberal Democrat support going to evaporate?

Yes it is and it has, conservative support has also due to the anti europe stance of the old tory faithful lending their support to UKIP.
Even Goves simpering and rolling out the old Thatcher slogans won't win them back haha.