[user104658]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

I don't think I am saying there will be a Labour victory,I do see the likelihood of a minority Labour govt,supported as a govt; by the SNP, Plaid Cymru,The Greens and the SDLP from Northern Ireland.

All those parties have declared their intention to keep the Conservatives out.
There was no swing back to the govt; in 2010 to Labour, there was also a swing away from the Labour govt; in 2005 too to the opposition.

The Conservatives were expected to win in Feb 1974 but there was no swing to them there, it went to the Labour opposition and even further back to 1970, the surprise of the decade was a major swing against the Labour govt; resulting in a Conservative victory.

Fine, you ignore all the polling but you cannot say there even looks like a swing looming to the present govt;
You also have nothing to back up your points that Labour are down on where they were in 2010 and the Conservatives not.

I am not getting angry at all, I was just pointing out all the data there is as to past elections and what is being said as to this one.
You are the one with little 'facts',not me and as I have listed above, there is not always a swing back to the govt; really.

As you say let's wait and see but I am pretty sure on the day, the Conservatives will have les seats and votes than they did in 2010 and Labour will have more seats and votes than they did in 2010.
However if you challenge others facts,you do need to have substance behind your challenge to be fair and with respect.

The bookies seem to agree with you Joey; a Labour minority government is bookie's favourite by enough of a margin to at least be a strong indicator IMO. Labour minority sitting around 6/4, Tory minority around 3/1. By no means a certainty, obviously. All other options are quite a bit further out.

Most heartening, of course, is seeing "any coalition involving UKIP" sitting away out at around 25/1. whew.