[bots]

You can try and manipulate statistics to say anything. I am saying, there has not been a surge in labour support since the last election and % swing is what dictates a change in government. Without a significant swing, labour have no chance in a first past the post system like we have in the UK. Given the inherent inaccuracies of polls, you would need to be seeing at a minimum 10-15% swing to labour for a labour surge to be in any way genuine. If anything, labour support has gone down since the last election

[arista]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

You can try and manipulate statistics to say anything. I am saying, there has not been a surge in labour support since the last election and % swing is what dictates a change in government. Without a significant swing, labour have no chance in a first past the post system like we have in the UK. Given the inherent inaccuracies of polls, you would need to be seeing at a minimum 10-15% swing to labour for a labour surge to be in any way genuine. If anything, labour support has gone down since the last election

Yes Every one has gone down in general
except for UKIP

All the Papers are saying To Close to call.

[joeysteele]

Not so,and really none of that makes sense with full respect.
However I am clearly wasting my time explaining, how it can be said that Labour support has gone down when all the polling suggests they are on 34%,considering they got 29% in 2010,that is not a 'down' figure in any sense.

The Conservatives got 36% of the votes in 2010, they are too are now on 34% in the polling done,which is a 'fall' of 2%,a downward move.
They are not statistsics,they are what voters are saying as to how they will vote in May to something like 8 different polling organisations.

The only parties that have gone down in expected share of the vote since 2010 are the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
The SNP, Plaid Cymru,Labour.the Greens and UKIP are all up on their 2010 share of the votes.

I am sorry but those are facts, however if anyone thinks the polls are not worth anything,then in that case, no one could have or has a clue where the parties may be then,so no one can justifiably say, without taking a guide from the polling.that any party is up or down.
So debate is then totally null and void and pointless.

I thought I was rather good at mathematics but if rising to 34 from 29 is actually going downwards,clearly I am not as good as I thought I was at adding up or subtracting.
Just as if falling to 34 from 36 is actually staying the same or going upwards.

Labour has as miuch chance as the Conservatives in first past the post, actually, the way the Labour votes stack up in many constituencies often brings them more seats than would be expected, even in 2010, the expectancy was for the Lib Dems to be higher than just 57,(there was talk of them having near 100 seats),with Labour to be nearer the 200 mark.
In fact in the first past the post system Labour got 258 seats,which went a fair way to block the Conservatives having an overall majority.

Ironically now it is the Conservatives who seem to be unable to secure overall majorities in first past the post,its is something they haven't done for almost 23 years now.

Also in fact the polling was rather uncannily accurate in 2010 too, the average polling had the Conservatives 7% ahead of Labour who were considered either around level with the Lib Dems or one or the other just ahead of each other.
A hung parliament was forecast all the way through the 2010 campaign and that is what happened, with the Conservatives on a final 36%, 307 seats,Labour on 29%,258 seats and the Lib Dems on 24%,57 seats.

Anyway it is all online to be read and confirmed for anyone who wishes to look it up.
Maths and figures cannot be adjusted by people just to suit their own hope for what they want to happen,than what is more likely to happen.

If you have any other way to prove, bit on the slide, with undisputable figures from any source that Labour is polling less now than in 2010, let's see it.

[Ammi]

..no you're not wasting your time, Joey..( I don't want to get involved in this thread and I'm not going to..)...but I have followed every post you've made and researched many of your points as well...I think as well as manifestos, people also vote for people, the people they believe in and the person they feel that they can trust to implement much needed changes..and what I do feel and know, is that if you were my local MP or indeed a party leader, any party that is...that is very likely the party I would vote for because you inspire me in the future of politics and you're someone I totally believe in and would trust completely...so you really aren't wasting your time at all, I promise you....

[arista]

( I don't want to get involved in this thread and I'm not going to..).

[AnnieK]

I agree with Ammi Joey. Your posts are both balanced and well written and have given me and I'm sure others food for thought. You have way more knowledge on these matters than I and I have enjoyed reading your posts and hope to continue to do so. It's an emotive subject but it is about our futures and the future of the UK so worth fighting for.

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by Ammi

..no you're not wasting your time, Joey..( I don't want to get involved in this thread and I'm not going to..)...but I have followed every post you've made and researched many of your points as well...I think as well as manifestos, people also vote for people, the people they believe in and the person they feel that they can trust to implement much needed changes..and what I do feel and know, is that if you were my local MP or indeed a party leader, any party that is...that is very likely the party I would vote for because you inspire me in the future of politics and you're someone I totally believe in and would trust completely...so you really aren't wasting your time at all, I promise you....

We are diametrically opposed politically, but I agree with you Ammi, that if Joey was my local MP he would inspire a confidence in me (that's been LONG GONE) in the future of politics because of his passion, sincerity and integrity and fairness.

And I also believe that I would trust him completely.

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by arista

( I don't want to get involved in this thread and I'm not going to..).

I see your point Aristsa - 'The Female Of The Species Is More Deadly Than The Male'

[Ammi]

Originally Posted by arista

( I don't want to get involved in this thread and I'm not going to..).

...hmmmm, you're very much wrong Arista, if I had something that I felt I wanted to say in this thread then I would do so...the posts I've been particularly interested in, in the thread have been Joey's, Livia's and Matt's and that's because they have more specific knowledge in politics and if there is something that they have said which has been of particular interest and that I didn't previously know, then I've researched it myself...and that's what I do in my life as well, I talk to people about their own personal issues and their experiences and things that they feel are much in need of change and should be addressed, I also personally know 2 of my local MPs who I also discuss concerns with on various things...I don't post my views on here because it's essentially a TV forum, so I don't feel the need to...and tbh Arista, I don't feel that there's very much 'debate' in the serious anymore and it all becomes far to personal far too quickly, taking most pleasure away from discussing issues....you feel that people who don't post much in this section are 'chickens..'...?...well I think that they're probably most wise to use your words because it's too often fairly unpleasant...and why would I choose to spend leisure time on the internet with such nonsense, that really would be silly...

[arista]

Originally Posted by arista

Farage just on Ch4NewsHD
said he will work with the Conservatives
he does not want a minister car.
He is full aware of what Micheal Gove
has said.


He also gave a great example
Churchill worked with Stalin

Roll on the Election.


Feck off Labour

To Add to this News Breaker above
The PM never once attacked UKIP
on Marr this morning

[arista]

"if I had something that I felt I wanted to say in this thread then I would do so"

Great
I look Forward to that


Feel The Force

[Josy]

David Cameron promises bill to legalise fox hunting in Conservative manifesto

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...galise-5520054

Disgusting man.

[MTVN]

Originally Posted by Josy

David Cameron promises bill to legalise fox hunting in Conservative manifesto

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...galise-5520054

Disgusting man.

They promised it in their manifesto in 2010 as well and never did so, I can't see any chance of the government winning the vote on it even if they did bring in a bill in the next parliament tbh

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by Josy

David Cameron promises bill to legalise fox hunting in Conservative manifesto

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...galise-5520054

Disgusting man.

"the unspeakable in full pursuit of the uneatable." I totally agree.

[MTVN]

I can understand why they would promise it anyway, it's a popular pledge with the traditional countryside vote who barely feel represented anymore

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by Ammi

...hmmmm, you're very much wrong Arista, if I had something that I felt I wanted to say in this thread then I would do so...the posts I've been particularly interested in, in the thread have been Joey's, Livia's and Matt's and that's because they have more specific knowledge in politics and if there is something that they have said which has been of particular interest and that I didn't previously know, then I've researched it myself...and that's what I do in my life as well, I talk to people about their own personal issues and their experiences and things that they feel are much in need of change and should be addressed, I also personally know 2 of my local MPs who I also discuss concerns with on various things...I don't post my views on here because it's essentially a TV forum, so I don't feel the need to...and tbh Arista, I don't feel that there's very much 'debate' in the serious anymore and it all becomes far to personal far too quickly, taking most pleasure away from discussing issues....you feel that people who don't post much in this section are 'chickens..'...?...well I think that they're probably most wise to use your words because it's too often fairly unpleasant...and why would I choose to spend leisure time on the internet with such nonsense, that really would be silly...

All true - and the emboldened piece is true and sad.

[kirklancaster]

Originally Posted by MTVN

I can understand why they would promise it anyway, it's a popular pledge with the traditional countryside vote who barely feel represented anymore

They are really coming across as desperate. With this, and the replicating of Thatcher's successful Social Housing and Discounted Shares sell off strategies, I think that they're trying to entice every class of voter.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by MTVN

They promised it in their manifesto in 2010 as well and never did so, I can't see any chance of the government winning the vote on it even if they did bring in a bill in the next parliament tbh

If he gets an overall majority he will hold a vote on it, he is under pressure from the so called 'respected hunting' organisations' and only the Lib Dems being in coalition stopped him trying it last time.

He will do it this time if he got an overall majority and if he succeeded,especially with the media backing him on it too,which most of them would, there would be cries of outrage at it being done by even those who will have supported him.

For me, the very sad fact is that he has this even in mind.which says a lot more about him again too and how he will easily cave in to pressure from the more 'elite' sources.

Oscar Wilde I believe said as to foxhunting,'it was the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable'
For me it should be an unspeakable policy from anyone,never mind have a Prime Minister that would want to even try to make it legal again.

As I said ages ago, as a child I saw a fox hunted down by the hounds and once exhausted it just had to stop and wait to be torn to pieces alive,then these toby jugs on horseback laughing and drinking, celebrating the barabaric event afterwards,made me really physically sick.
I actually think he could swing a vote behind it this time in parliament if he had an overall majority.
It isn't something he ever seems to want to abandon for sure.

[Kizzy]

He'd promise anything for the 'ya ya vote' as my dad called it, I have faith he won't get a chance.

[MTVN]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

If he gets an overall majority he will hold a vote on it, he is under pressure from the so called 'respected hunting' organisations' and only the Lib Dems being in coalition stopped him trying it last time.

He will do it this time if he got an overall majority and if he succeeded,especially with the media backing him on it too,which most of them would, there would be cries of outrage at it being done by even those who will have supported him.

For me, the very sad fact is that he has this even in mind.which says a lot more about him again too and how he will easily cave in to pressure from the more 'elite' sources.

Oscar Wilde I believe said as to foxhunting,'it was the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable'
For me it should be an unspeakable policy from anyone,never mind have a Prime Minister that would want to even try to make it legal again.

As I said ages ago, as a child I saw a fox hunted down by the hounds and once exhausted it just had to stop and wait to be torn to pieces alive,then these toby jugs on horseback laughing and drinking, celebrating the barabaric event afterwards,made me really physically sick.
I actually think he could swing a vote behind it this time in parliament if he had an overall majority.
It isn't something he ever seems to want to abandon for sure.

Even if he does hold a vote on it I can't see it passing though, not enough Tory MPs will support it I don't think even if they have a majority. It's not really a new thing from Cameron though - he's always been a big supporter of the traditional rural lifestyle and countryside groups however incomprehensible they are to a lot of people.

[Josy]

Originally Posted by MTVN

They promised it in their manifesto in 2010 as well and never did so, I can't see any chance of the government winning the vote on it even if they did bring in a bill in the next parliament tbh

Even suggesting it makes him disgusting

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Ammi

..no you're not wasting your time, Joey..( I don't want to get involved in this thread and I'm not going to..)...but I have followed every post you've made and researched many of your points as well...I think as well as manifestos, people also vote for people, the people they believe in and the person they feel that they can trust to implement much needed changes..and what I do feel and know, is that if you were my local MP or indeed a party leader, any party that is...that is very likely the party I would vote for because you inspire me in the future of politics and you're someone I totally believe in and would trust completely...so you really aren't wasting your time at all, I promise you....

Thank you Ammi, I really do appreciate all you have said and AnnieK too.

I just say what I know and believe to be right. Adding my own hopes and opinions to it too within the context of the facts.

Politics is a massive passion of mine and it saddens me that it is so divisive.
Thankfully when out campaigning for the party I am doing so for, the responses on the doorstep and the streets are far more compromising and open minded too on lots of issues.
If only that could be encouraged and become the norm in politics.

Last week,for instance, I was out leafleting and across the road was a Conservative activist leafleting too.
We chatted across the road,then decided to do the streets on the same sides of the roads.
No major divisions,except on issues we both held important to us, and it was amazing the conversations we had while doing the leaflets and not just as to politics and the election.
For me, that is how it should be and really could be.

The sad thing is in all parties, there are a majority of 'concensus' politicians whose voices and aspirations are squashed by the louder extremes of both sides of politics.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Josy

Even suggesting it makes him disgusting

In my opinion too, it does and it shows his real thinking too.

He says the UK needs more austerity done, Europe needs a shake up, Welfare needs 12 billion more of cuts.

Hey though, with the opportunity to do so if he were to win outright,he thinks, let's bring back foxhunting with dogs on the back of all that too.
As you rightly describe,'disgusting'.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by MTVN

Even if he does hold a vote on it I can't see it passing though, not enough Tory MPs will support it I don't think even if they have a majority. It's not really a new thing from Cameron though - he's always been a big supporter of the traditional rural lifestyle and countryside groups however incomprehensible they are to a lot of people.

If he promised backbenchers something they really wanted too, he would be able to swing, maybe reluctantly but still never-the- less support for this.

Since he says he is supposedly so keen on the people deciding things,it surprises me he would not trust their view as leaving foxhunting illegal or making it legal again,via a referendum on the issue.
He could even hold it at the same time as his 'possible' EU referendum at a massively reduced cost.

[bots]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

The only parties that have gone down in expected share of the vote since 2010 are the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
The SNP, Plaid Cymru,Labour.the Greens and UKIP are all up on their 2010 share of the votes.

I tried to explain that the current party in government always shows a lower poll rating. But the simple fact is that generally recovers when it comes to polling day and people put their ticks in the box.

Joey, fair play, you are an enthusiastic labour supporter, and believe the data you are reading and think that favours a labour victory. I don't just look at the data, I view from the experience of witnessing more general elections than I care to remember. My belief is that the tories will scrape it with a minority.

There is no point in getting angry or upset about it, don't take it personally, we all have our own opinions, lets just wait and see who is closest to correct when the voting closes ... it won't be long now