[James]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Sian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/t...rother-farmer/