[James]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands.

Originally Posted by Matthew.

i think you mean 6.25%

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

[user104658]

Originally Posted by James

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands.






Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

It is quite depressing I suppose that these things are never really equal... It would actually be quite interesting if someone put together all of the figures over the years and got some full stats on it! E.g. Is it true that Irish people last longer? Do Scottish people go sooner? Do men have a better chance than women? Does sexuality come into it? I'd guess all of these things do but I wonder what the "statistically most likely" finalist looks like . I think actual WINNER involves a higher element of storylines / what happened during the series but I reckon "likely finalists" can be identified very early on. Cian, Zoe and Akeem were all really likely finalists right from the first week. Cameron not so much and needed that "story boost".

Funnily enough on first impressions, Lewis F was a very UNlikely finalist but would almost definitely have won if he hadn't been kicked... Which actually applies to a lot of "oddball" winners.