[James]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands.

Originally Posted by Matthew.

i think you mean 6.25%

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%