[user104658]

I will be utterly blown away if it gets through parliament. Leaving with a deal is the best possible outcome at this point but the MPs themselves, from all parties, are still playing politics with it all and it'll be no different to the vote on the May deal.

If we revoke and stay in the EU, the issue will simply never die. It'll swallow UK politics for years if not decades to come. If we leave without a deal it'll be the worst possible outcome economically.

Taking a crappy deal and then working on improving it in the years to come is the sensible choice at this point.

So... It probably won't happen.

[Scarlett.]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

I will be utterly blown away if it gets through parliament. Leaving with a deal is the best possible outcome at this point but the MPs themselves, from all parties, are still playing politics with it all and it'll be no different to the vote on the May deal.

If we revoke and stay in the EU, the issue will simply never die. It'll swallow UK politics for years if not decades to come. If we leave without a deal it'll be the worst possible outcome economically.

Taking a crappy deal and then working on improving it in the years to come is the sensible choice at this point.

So... It probably won't happen.

Pretty much, this deal is our only way out of this Brexit mess

[Cherie]

I think this deal will scrape through somehow

[joeysteele]

It's success depends on the former Con MPs.
Plus if the DUP do stick to actually voting against, then some ERG members in the Con party, could vote against it too.

I'd be surprised if even just 10 to 12 Labour MPs were to give support.

For the wrong reasons and in the wrong way.
It cannot be denied that Johnson has played a negatively clever game here.
He's put all Parties, his own included and all the MPs on the spot with this.

His agreement is worse than May's, yet here we are.

The Lib Dems may now be made to regret really not getting behind the caretaker government plan.

However the ensuing general election, if this bill passes will be harder for Johnson.
As Farage is against this agreement so will actively fight against Johnson's Cons too.
Claiming he sold out in the end.
Wrongly but he'll claim he has.

[Twosugars]

I want a second referendum and a revoke

[user104658]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

It's success depends on the former Con MPs.
Plus if the DUP do stick to actually voting against, then some ERG members in the Con party, could vote against it too.

I'd be surprised if even just 10 to 12 Labour MPs were to give support.

For the wrong reasons and in the wrong way.
It cannot be denied that Johnson has played a negatively clever game here.
He's put all Parties, his own included and all the MPs on the spot with this.

His agreement is worse than May's, yet here we are.

The Lib Dems may now be made to regret really not getting behind the caretaker government plan.

However the ensuing general election, if this bill passes will be harder for Johnson.
As Farage is against this agreement so will actively fight against Johnson's Cons too.
Claiming he sold out in the end.
Wrongly but he'll claim he has.

I don't know, I think the bulk of Brexiteers - along with everyone else - is suffering severe political fatigue at the moment and will most likely "lazily" vote Tory. I don't know if there's enough of a fire left under most people to now start voting outside of their comfort zone. It's simply dragged on for too long now.

[bots]

It's a smart move from Boris because anyone that now votes against the deal will be seen as obstructive and that will be reflected in any upcoming election. I think the deal will scrape through on that basis.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Twosugars

I want a second referendum and a revoke

Well all those who really want no deal out the way, and now maybe also seeing this poorly set out agreement, what we know of the main points.
Who still want closer connections to the EU.

Then revoke may be the only way for them to go now.
Unfortunately, I can't see Labour even just as a majority supporting that.

Another referendum more possible as an agreement to pass this agreement via an amendment.

I guess Twosugars we don't have long to see what the oppositions and also disgruntled Cons decide to do now at this probable last chance saloon.

[Twosugars]

Very true, Joey

[Niamh.]

Spoiler:

[arista]

Originally Posted by twosugars

i want a second referendum and a revoke

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

I don't know, I think the bulk of Brexiteers - along with everyone else - is suffering severe political fatigue at the moment and will most likely "lazily" vote Tory. I don't know if there's enough of a fire left under most people to now start voting outside of their comfort zone. It's simply dragged on for too long now.

I agree with that TS.

With anyone other than Farage leading the Brexit party, I'd think your point more certain.

However Farage is going to present this as not really leaving at all.
I can't stand Farage but he is likely the only one who can make Johnson look as if he's sold the cause and leave voters out.

It may never result in the Brexit party winning seats but they are likely to pull stronger leave voters back from the Cons.

Furthermore, by its name..
The Brexit party needs this to carry on to preserve their own existence further.
Farage thrives on divisiveness no matter who it's against.

[Twosugars]

Originally Posted by arista

Yeah bc it's up to Gove

[Sticks]

We're leaving without a deal
We're leaving without a deal
Joy oh, Joy oh Joy
We're leaving without a deal

Hard Border here we come
Hard border here we come
Joy oh, Joy oh Joy
Hard Border here we come

Good Friday Surrender gone
Good Friday Surrender gone
Joy oh, Joy oh Joy
Good Friday Surrender gone

Thanks to the No Deal supporting Labour Party we are going for a No Deal Hard Brexit, and a hard physical border in Northern Ireland

[arista]

The PM is Live now in Brussels

[UserSince2005]

The EU hasn't satisfied me with it deal.

No deal it shall be.

[arista]

And

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Sticks

Thanks to the No Deal supporting Labour Party we are going for a No Deal Hard Brexit, and a hard physical border in Northern Ireland

There is a sort of irony in the fact that it's opposition parties who claim to be trying for the best possible deal, who are going to end up triggering No Deal by default.

I'm even fairly annoyed with the SNP for being dead against it but at least in that case I understand why; the SNP can't be seen to support leaving the EU in any form, as it would play out badly in negotiations if Scotland ever does gain independence and seeks to join a customs union.

But for Labour in England - what do they think is going to be achieved at this point? Do they believe there's going to be a delay, a general election, and that the Conservatives won't win it? Living in a fantasy land... it's this deal or no deal for Brexit. That simple.

[Twosugars]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

There is a sort of irony in the fact that it's opposition parties who claim to be trying for the best possible deal, who are going to end up triggering No Deal by default.

I'm even fairly annoyed with the SNP for being dead against it but at least in that case I understand why; the SNP can't be seen to support leaving the EU in any form, as it would play out badly in negotiations if Scotland ever does gain independence and seeks to join a customs union.

But for Labour in England - what do they think is going to be achieved at this point? Do they believe there's going to be a delay, a general election, and that the Conservatives won't win it? Living in a fantasy land... it's this deal or no deal for Brexit. That simple.

Not quite.
Another route is extension, caretaker government, new deal negotiations and new referendum

[bots]

Originally Posted by Twosugars

Not quite.
Another route is extension, caretaker government, new deal negotiations and new referendum

everyone wants an end to the uncertainty. People really do need to remember that this is a deal for the transition period only, which ends at the end of 2020.

Any party can accept that at this stage. All this talk of caretaker governments etc will play entirely into the tory hands because as soon as there is a GE ... they will win if the other parties refused to play ball and end the uncertainty.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

everyone wants an end to the uncertainty. People really do need to remember that this is a deal for the transition period only, which ends at the end of 2020.

Any party can accept that at this stage. All this talk of caretaker governments etc will play entirely into the tory hands because as soon as there is a GE ... they will win if the other parties refused to play ball and end the uncertainty.

That's the part I think people are in denial about. If there is another election, the Tories will win it. If there is another referendum, 1) the turnout will be ABYSMAL and 2) Leave will still win. If it's a multi-option referendum rather than binary, then "Remain" and "Leave With Deal" will split the popular vote and No Deal will win by default.

[arista]

[Twosugars]

Originally Posted by bitontheslide

everyone wants an end to the uncertainty. People really do need to remember that this is a deal for the transition period only, which ends at the end of 2020.

Any party can accept that at this stage. All this talk of caretaker governments etc will play entirely into the tory hands because as soon as there is a GE ... they will win if the other parties refused to play ball and end the uncertainty.

The point of a caretaker government would be the referendum and a potential win for remain

[Twosugars]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

That's the part I think people are in denial about. If there is another election, the Tories will win it. If there is another referendum, 1) the turnout will be ABYSMAL and 2) Leave will still win. If it's a multi-option referendum rather than binary, then "Remain" and "Leave With Deal" will split the popular vote and No Deal will win by default.

Not so fast Mystic Meg

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

That's the part I think people are in denial about. If there is another election, the Tories will win it. If there is another referendum, 1) the turnout will be ABYSMAL and 2) Leave will still win. If it's a multi-option referendum rather than binary, then "Remain" and "Leave With Deal" will split the popular vote and No Deal will win by default.

I'd rather not have a multi option TS on the ballot paper, if, another referendum was even considered.

I'd rather 2 choices only.
Like you I agree in a multi option votes will be split.

However talking to people who solidly want to remain, they will do so again if remain is on the ballot.

I think however a multi option would help 'with a deal' winning.

Because, when I talk to those who voted leave, who are more reasonable than the more extreme leave voters.
They dislike no deal as much as anyone else who does.
So the leave vote is more than likely to be split too.

With I think, (just picking things up from all I have chatted to), large numbers of leave voters choosing a deal option.