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Well to be fair Michael being a mole and the Safe House have been the two major twists so far, with Michael then Dan was the most consistent with his claims whereas Sallie went back and forth a bit more and the others didn't really think it all. I do think he is a genuinely good judge of things, a couple of other examples would be when Michael was in the DR quite early bitching about all the various housemates and he was the first to say 'this isn't real' and then more recently with Daley's ejection he was pretty much the only one arguing it was real when all the others were convinced it was fake, admittedly he had a bit more insight by being close to Hazel but still, at that point she hadn't revealed anything