[user104658]

Originally Posted by Livia

I don't agree. I worked for the Tories until December and I have to say, their confidence grew significantly in the couple of months before I left. Like you say, a year is a long time, but the campaigns have started already. That's not to say that I support them, but I do think they're working hard to win back their core voters and I think it's beginning to work. But only time will tell... see you back here with joeysteele for the post-match analysis next year.

The Tories couldn't even achieve an overall majority (causing them to form the most laughable coalition government conceivable) at the last General Election when they not only had core voters, but had also managed to sway some less politically aware members of the traditionally Labour population, who they swiftly flipped over and buggered mercilessly as soon as they were in power.

Those people will not vote for them again.

And on top of that, people who didn't vote at all in the last election but are feeling the effects of Tory policies the most over the last few years will (surely, one would think) be out in force as soon as they get the chance.

I simply can't picture a scenario where the Tories, who only managed to cobble together a frankengovernment last time around on the back of both "standard" Tory faithful AND gullible sheeple who were swayed by their campaign rhetoric, could feasibly achieve any sort of majority this time around.

Of course, I suppose there's always the nightmare scenario; ToryKIP. But then, almost every poll has shown that UKIP vote increases correlate with Tory decreases. UKIP votes are almost all ex-Tory votes.