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sampvt · 13-08-2014, 10:52 AM

There seems to be some confusion as to how these bookies odds work. Some FM's are under the impression that its the sheer volume of money placed on a person that depicts the odds, that's simply not true.

When the names for evictions come up, nobody has laid any money on anyone, so the odds are made up PROVISIONALLY, but odds compilers in the bookies head offices. Once that's been done by virtue if report analisis, polls and common sence, the odds go up.

After that the money laid on each individual does have a bearing, but not like as in a horse race where form takes precedence. In this BB games case, future storylines, pending arguments, fan perception and past history takes precedence.

Last week nobody could predict an eviction for Winston but there was more money won on him than on the fav Mark because mark was made unbackable and Winston was a teaser that nobody foresaw.

This whole hype around Ashleigh is Bling and no substance. She was down to 1/5 a week ago, so nobody backed her. She was left at that for 1 week no she is coming back to 1/2 or better when the punters will hit her then, so if she was such a hard nose fav, why is she slipping backwards, the money is already down, its a ploy to get you to back.

Why is it a ploy, well simple.......Bet365 set her out at 1/2 and maybe take £5000. Their loss would be £2500 so they wait till another bookies weighs in at evens and they lay off half of their collected £5000 to win £2500 to pay out if she wins and they make £2500 for nothing.

Over the last week Helen has been hit hard from 50/1 down to 8/1 so she has had more money on her than Ashleigh at 1/4 so if volume was the guide, Helen would be fav. She isn't so go figure.

The biggest punters on BB are the bookies themselves laying off bets to the biggest and bravest office. They also have names that stand behind big bets but for the most part, Ladbrokes and hills will accept any bet but not at the odds they give you the public.

Moral of the story is that although Ashleigh is fav, it does not mean she has the most bets on her.

Samm · 13-08-2014, 11:06 AM

Keep trying, you said Winston would win

sampvt · 13-08-2014, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ~Sam~

Keep trying, you said Winston would win

I also said Ashleigh cant, stop baiting, its below you.

MrWong · 13-08-2014, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ~Sam~

Keep trying, you said Winston would win

sampvt · 13-08-2014, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWong

Is your day so sad that all you can do is malign every post I make. Try using words I can reply or debate with. These baiting giffs are tiresome and obvious.

MrWong · 13-08-2014, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sampvt

Is your day so sad that all you can do is malign every post I make. Try using words I can reply or debate with. These baiting giffs are tiresome and obvious.

If using smilies was against the rules there'd be an awful lot of posters on a ban.

You did spout on about Winston winning, Sam's post was valid and made me laugh. Honestly, get over yourself.

sampvt · 13-08-2014, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWong

If using smilies was against the rules there'd be an awful lot of posters on a ban.

You did spout on about Winston winning, Sam's post was valid and made me laugh. Honestly, get over yourself.

JTM45 · 13-08-2014, 11:25 AM

So what will you say when Ashleigh wins then because she is going to win, no doubt about it!

sampvt · 13-08-2014, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTM45

So what will you say when Ashleigh wins then because she is going to win, no doubt about it!

Ill admit I am a bad judge of character, will you do the same or will you just put it down to experience like what people of mine and chuffs and lex have in abundance. Oh I forgot bobnot or whatever he is called, lol, he is pretty clued up as well. but not quite as old as us, lol.

erinp5 · 13-08-2014, 01:29 PM

"No fool like an old fool"

* I'll get my coat*

Achilles · 13-08-2014, 01:38 PM

I predicted Winston would be evicted

I watched the odds change. Friday morning 6% of bets placed 5/5. Just before the show started he was around 16% and 2/5.
FB was also full of Get Winston Out.

The people who were shocked were the casual viewers and the complacent Winston fans who assumed he was safe

Yaki da · 13-08-2014, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sampvt

This whole hype around Ashleigh is Bling and no substance. She was down to 1/5 a week ago

She wasn't. The lowest she has been backed on betfair is 1.37 which is about 4/11. I doubt any of the other bookies have had her shorter than that

user104658 · 13-08-2014, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yaki da

She wasn't. The lowest she has been backed on betfair is 1.37 which is about 4/11. I doubt any of the other bookies have had her shorter than that

A couple had her at 4/13 just yesterday, during the 6-or-so hours when all of the odds were shifting around.

daniel-lewis-1985 · 13-08-2014, 01:47 PM

Thank god I didn't bet on Winston lol I honestly thought he had a good chance.

How much money did you lose?

sampvt · 13-08-2014, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel-lewis-1985

Thank god I didn't bet on Winston lol I honestly thought he had a good chance.

How much money did you lose?

I lost one bet just over £800 but I have recouped over 2/3rds of that after mark went before the final and it depends whether or not Pav gets into the final 3 and if Helen beats Ashleigh in the girls race. Ive had a fair bet on Ash to win at 50/1 and some, not much, on Christopher to win. The only person that looses me money will be Ashleigh winning which I am pretty convinced she wont, but we will see. Funnily enough, my biggest payout will be if Pav gets to the final 3, so all is not yet lost.

Im calling a truce if you want to be civil, cant stand the bickering, its draining.

Achilles · 13-08-2014, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sampvt

I lost one bet just over £800 but I have recouped over 2/3rds of that after mark went before the final and it depends whether or not Pav gets into the final 3 and if Helen beats Ashleigh in the girls race. Ive had a fair bet on Ash to win at 50/1 and some, not much, on Christopher to win. The only person that looses me money will be Ashleigh winning which I am pretty convinced she wont, but we will see. Funnily enough, my biggest payout will be if Pav gets to the final 3, so all is not yet lost.

Im calling a truce if you want to be civil, cant stand the bickering, its draining.

Pav will be 6th. I would make a bet on it. Ash can win, I should have made a bet on it too when he was long odds.

Niamh. · 13-08-2014, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Achilles

Pav will be 6th. I would make a bet on it. Ash can win, I should have made a bet on it too when he was long odds.

I think pav will finish better than people think, I reckon Chris will be 6th unfortunately

sampvt · 13-08-2014, 02:56 PM

Ive made 7 predictions this years and the last one that lost is what I will be named for, Winstyon getting oiked, but the rest where right. I also said Ashleigh wont win but after that I cant see creepy CXhris getting better than Pav and Christopher is loosing support recently. I am thinking the order they go will be hopefully, Chris, Christopher, Helen, Pav, Ashleigh then King Ash. Its all dependant on the latest edits and how Helen acts. If Helen goes into the final with credits, she drags Ash along, if she messes up, pav jumps up and takes her place.

MrWong · 13-08-2014, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sampvt

Ive made 7 predictions this years and the last one that lost is what I will be named for, Winstyon getting oiked, but the rest where right. I also said Ashleigh wont win but after that I cant see creepy CXhris getting better than Pav and Christopher is loosing support recently. I am thinking the order they go will be hopefully, Chris, Christopher, Helen, Pav, Ashleigh then King Ash. Its all dependant on the latest edits and how Helen acts. If Helen goes into the final with credits, she drags Ash along, if she messes up, pav jumps up and takes her place.

What were the 7 predictions?