Quote:
Originally Posted by Toy Soldier
I don't even understand what you're trying to say here. something that David Cameron has said is, somehow, inexplicably, Salmond's political maneuvering? In what possible way? It came directly from the mouth of the prime minister... The promised powers will come hand in hand with a nice big slash in budget.
Also... If it was truly the case that everyone had long decided how they would vote, do you really think the party leaders would have been scrambling not 2 weeks ago to draw up this agreement to transfer powers? The polls over the last year shifted from nearly 70/30 to hovering around 50/50. It may indeed not be the case but honestly, it is entirely plausible that at least a chunk of that final 5% shift was swayed by that final agreement for transferring powers.
Also, (in my mind) trying but failing to live up to ambitious election pledges when they're proven not to be feasible (as I agree is true of many pro-indy pledges) is one thing. Making promises with absolutely NO intention of them ever being a reality is quite another. It's been less than a WEEK since the referendum. Mr Cameron isn't saying "unfortunately some of these promises are going to fall short", he's outright admitting that this was the intention all along.
It's the absolute worst of politics. What a complete shambles. And we (the UK, Scottish and English) are now expected to trust these people to run the country? We're expected to believe any word they have to say again... Ever?
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The constitutional issues about devolving more powers are not trivial and effect the rest of the UK in different ways so have to be thought about, and that takes time. Salmond should have recognised that and respected that the vote didn't go his way instead of mouthing off about people being tricked. That wasn't statesman-like. He's no right to carry on being as divisive as that.
That Ashcroft poll had some information about when people made up their minds - findings here -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx4rfkuIQAAbO7J.jpg:large
Admittedly it is only a poll and the age group data in it has now been contradicted by another poll. But it said that only 9% of people who eventually voted no decided finally in the last week (compared with 21% who voted yes). I did some number-crunching and 9% of 2 million no votes works out at 180,000 votes. Even if everyone single one of those votes had switched to yes (plus all the final week no votes staying the same) then no would still have won.
They promises made about extra powers were panicky, yeah, but the parties had all made that pledge months earlier in the campaign. As far as I know the only difference with the Daily Record thing was it was the three party leaders all saying it together.
Also the same poll said that 81% of no voters had already decided at the beginning of the year, compared to 61% of yes voters. So you can work out from that - 81% of 2 million is 1.62 million (higher than the final yes vote) and 61% of 1.617 million final yes votes is 987000.
That means that this year, for yes to win, based on this poll, they would have to persuade about 825000 out of the approx 1 million votes still up for grabs - 82.5%.
Also poll said that 62% of no voters said they have always known how they would vote compared to 38% for yes which I think shows how difficult it was always going to be for yes to win.
As I said it is only one poll and I don't know how reliable it is but it rings true to me that loads of people decided ages ago.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toy Soldier
And that would be why the majority of 24 to 55 year olds - the VAST bulk of the working population - were a majority yes?
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YouGov data from their on-the-day poll says only one age group (25-39) voted yes. All the others voted no.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByO4sJcIEAIeRS8.jpg
23-09-2014, 09:51 PM
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