[joeysteele]

There will be a few factors in this by election and sadly none good for politics.

Some Labour voters astonishingly will vote for UKIP to help make sure the seat is not a Conservative win.
Clearly the Conservatives will also lose votes and therefore UKIP will unfortunately take the seat.

It is what now happens after this by electionthat troubles me and it is a simple fact, if the Conservatives lose this seat today, they really are in dire straits.
David Cameron has been there at least 5 times,this is a seat he should never have been in with a chance of losing.
If he loses it after all his hardline spouting off as to the EU too,then it will show he just isn't believed by the electorate at all.

This is the danger of making Europe a big issue at the forefront of politics,William Hague fought a campaign as leader in 2001 all about saving the pound.
Voters were just in the end switched off by it all.

I didn't see this as a seat Labour had any great hopes of winning,they did when it was Medway with Tony Blair as their leader in the landslide period for him.
So I expect to see Labour voters backing UKIP, which I think is dangerous but there you go.

It is a seat that,no matter what the media or David Cameron and his team say, should not be lost by the Conservatives.
If it goes to UKIP and I hope somehow it doesn't,who knows what can of worms gets opened after it.

Less than 6 months before the 2015 election, this by election was the last thing needed.