[kirklancaster]

STURGEON AND SALMOND'S FISHY BUSINESS

So at last the truth emerges: The Scottish people did NOT vote unanimously to 'Remain' in the EU - it WAS just mere 'doctoring' of the manner in which results were shown.

NEW research reveals that at least one Scottish constituency voted for Brexit (and several more were 'Borderline')undermining Nicola Sturgeon's attempts to keep the country in the EU.

The figures from Chris Hanretty, one of Britain's leading election analysts, show the Remain campaign did not secure a clean sweep of voters north of the Border after all.

Dr Hanretty, a reader in politics at the University of East Anglia, has calculated the Leave vote share in every Westminster constituency in the country.

His research shows that a majority of people in Banff and Buchan voted to quit the EU, with 54 per cent choosing to take back control from Brussels.

The constituency - which is represented by the SNP's Dr Eilidh Whiteford - includes the fishing ports of Peterhead and Fraserburgh.

Previously, the results of the EU referendum in Scotland have only been shown by council area, masking such local hotbeds of Eurosceptism.

It had been thought that Moray - which is both a council area and a Westminster constituency - recorded the biggest Scottish vote for Leave, with 49.9 per cent.

However, Dr Hanretty's research reveals that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was also on a knife edge, with 49.4 per cent voting to exit the EU.

He calculated the figures using census data, taking into account factors such as age and university education, and believes they are accurate to within one per cent.

"If there is a constituency with a 51 per cent Leave vote, I would say there is still an element of doubt but in the case of Banff and Buchan it's 54 per cent," he explained.

"It makes sense to me, especially as it's the home of the fishing industry and it's encouraging because there is nothing in my model which says anything about fishing but it still shows a Leave vote based on all the other factors.

"For constituencies where the Leave vote was 49 per cent or above, you wouldn't want to say they were definitely Remain. In Caithness it was very, very close and you wouldn't want to express a firm judgement either way."

There were also hidden pockets of above-average support for Leave in Angus - which has a different boundary to the council area - with 48 per cent, as well as Glenrothes in Fife (47 per cent), Gordon in Aberdeenshire (45 per cent) and Glasgow East (44 per cent).

Dr Hanretty, a Scot, said: "There are these kinds of differences all across the country and it shows that public opinion in the Central Belt is not always going to reflect what happens in the Highlands."

The Remain clean sweep has been used to support Ms Sturgeon's claim that Scots would rather face another independence referendum than leave the EU.

Alex Salmond, who was MP for Banff and Buchan until 2010, recently warned: "If Scotland is dragged out of the European Union, against the will of the Scottish people, then the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum."

However, Tom Harris, who led the Scottish Leave campaign, said: "This Banff and Buchan result is interesting and useful but what really undermines the Scottish Government's position is the fact that more than one million Scots voted to Leave.

"I don't think it will come as a surprise to Alex Salmond and perhaps it is the thought of those one million Leave votes that is causing Nicola Sturgeon to pause when it comes to pressing the referendum button."

ONE MILLION SCOTS KNOW THEIR OATS AND THEY VOTED TO LEAVE

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/734...icola-Sturgeon

[MB.]

...nobody ever stated that absolutely everybody in Scotland voted Remain. That would be impossible The important thing is that the vast majority of constituencies did

[jaxie]

That was an interesting article Kirk thanks for sharing. It makes sense to me that fishing communities would see a higher vote leave as they have suffered a great deal at the hands of the EU, unfortunately no one seems to care about them and the loss of their way of life.

It seems increasingly clear to me that the SNP is less a party of Independence than it is a party of English haters with a historic grudge. If they truly wanted to govern themselves they wouldn't be trying to desperately shoot themselves up the EUs bum! As a Scot said on question time last week, it doesn't make sense to want to leave the union for a much worse less democratic one. Sad really as I had always thought we had a friendly union in the last decades, that we were all family but I'm now greatly disillusioned.

[joeysteele]

Interesting analysis but who ever challenged such a view anyway, also by the same token not all constituencies in England voted to leave either.

Odd how now what small areas that voted leave in Scotland,in a large overall result to remain, attract attention while choosing it seems to ignore the issue of the overall vote that we get so much from leave.

The Scots overwhelmingly voted to remain by 62% to 38% of the votes cast,
That is both truth and fact.
A really convincing 24% majority to remain.

Birmingham in England were just about as split down the middle as any result could be across the UK.
One of the largest cities in England with the tiniest of majorities to leave but then almost equally there is Newcastle who recorded a small majority to remain.
Then Manchester who solidly voted to remain.
If we are to look at the individual constituencies now rather than the overall picture, there will always be variations, some larger or smaller than others.


I don't recall anyone saying there were no areas in Scotland that didn't vote leave, all that has been said is Scotland by a large percentage of votes cast, overwhelmingly voted to remain.

Wales voted to leave but areas in Wales voted to remain, in an overall narrow result to leave in the end.

N Ireland Voted to remain but areas there voted to leave too,in an overall result of a 12% margin to remain.

How does that analysis change anything when leave keep telling us that the only thing that should matter is the overall UK result of votes, nothing else.
Up to now they have dismissed Scotland as near irrelevant because it voted to remain anyway.

62% of Scots voted to remain, the First Minister of the Scottish parliament is duty bound to do her utmost to honour that vote and do all she can to protect Scotland's position in the EU and having the best deal for Scotland.
She saw a really decisive result in her Country of the UK,a good double figure percentage to remain.
Nothing in the opening post undermines her position at all as to fighting to honour her Country's 24% majority of voting to remain.


Just as Northern Ireland did too.

[Tom4784]

By this logic Kirk, you're saying that people who voted Remain have a valid reason to be angry since the overall vote was a lot closer than the Scottish vote.

62% of Scotland voted to remain compared to the 52% of the UK that voted to leave.

[jaxie]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Interesting analysis but who ever challenged such a view anyway, also by the same token not all constituencies in England voted to leave either.

Odd how now what small areas that voted leave in Scotland,in a large overall result to remain, attract attention while choosing it seems to ignore the issue of the overall vote that we get so much from leave.

The Scots overwhelmingly voted to remain by 62% to 38% of the votes cast,
That is both truth and fact.
A really convincing 24% majority to remain.

Birmingham in England were just about as split down the middle as any result could be across the UK.
One of the largest cities in England with the tiniest of majorities to leave but then almost equally there is Newcastle who recorded a small majority to remain.
Then Manchester who solidly voted to remain.
If we are to look at the individual constituencies now rather than the overall picture, there will always be variations, some larger or smaller than others.


I don't recall anyone saying there were no areas in Scotland that didn't vote leave, all that has been said is Scotland by a large percentage of votes cast, overwhelmingly voted to remain.

Wales voted to leave but areas in Wales voted to remain, in an overall narrow result to leave in the end.

N Ireland Voted to remain but areas there voted to leave too,in an overall result of a 12% margin to remain.

How does that analysis change anything when leave keep telling us that the only thing that should matter is the overall UK result of votes, nothing else.
Up to now they have dismissed Scotland as near irrelevant because it voted to remain anyway.

62% of Scots voted to remain, the First Minister of the Scottish parliament is duty bound to do her utmost to honour that vote and do all she can to protect Scotland's position in the EU and having the best deal for Scotland.
She saw a really decisive result in her Country of the UK,a good double figure percentage to remain.
Nothing in the opening post undermines her position at all as to fighting to honour her Country's 24% majority of voting to remain.


Just as Northern Ireland did too.

To be fair though Joey, as another Scot said on last week's question time, Scotland already voted to stay in the UK, the EU vote they voted as part of the UK. Therefore they have to respect the result the UK gave. It's not a separate vote.

[Firewire]

Originally Posted by jaxie

To be fair though Joey, as another Scot said on last week's question time, Scotland already voted to stay in the UK, the EU vote they voted as part of the UK. Therefore they have to respect the result the UK gave. It's not a separate vote.

Not when the Scottish people voted to stay as part of the UK with the knowledge of being part of the EU

That's changed now

[jaxie]

Originally Posted by Firewire

Not when the Scottish people voted to stay as part of the UK with the knowledge of being part of the EU

That's changed now

That's not entirely accurate. At the time of the referendum the EU said Scotland wasn't guaranteed membership of the EU if it left the UK. I don't recall anyone promising that they would remain regardless of what the rest of the UK did. Had Scotland voted for independence they would have been out of the EU anyway.

What it boils down to is that the EU doesn't really want to prop up Scotland.

As a Scot can you explain why you want to be part of a federal Europe with little control over your own country rather than in a UK with increasing devolved powers and a financial shoulder to lean on?

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by jaxie

To be fair though Joey, as another Scot said on last week's question time, Scotland already voted to stay in the UK, the EU vote they voted as part of the UK. Therefore they have to respect the result theUK gave. It's not a separate vote.

Sorry but I have to disagree.

At the time the independence referendum was put in place and duly held in 2014, a referendum on the EU looked a very distant prospect indeed as to the UK.
Only David Cameron had proposed a likely one and that was conditional on him getting an overall majority.
All through the last parliament,and even right to polling day,no main party looked to be in line for anything like an overall majority and were expected to fall well short of one too.

In the independence referendum, the Scots were told their best way to stay in the EU was to remain part of the UK, that was said since Alex Salmond still proposed Scotland remaining in the EU after independence.

Nicola Sturgeon to her credit, has always stated any major change could lead to her wanting to hold a new independence referendum.
The broken pledge of Scotland remaining in the EU by voting to stay in the UK is broken now.
Scotland still voted to remain and solidly and had I held this referendum myself, I would have insisted 3 of the 4 UK nations would have to support either staying or leaving for that referendum to be binding.

That was not put in place,however the Scots still voted by the largest majority of percentage of their electorate to remain in the EU,no matter the fact that English much larger electorate and votes, by those much larger numbers were able to bring about an overall UK leave vote.

It does not alter the fact, this is a major change from the time of the original independence referendum in Scotland and the broken guarantees.
Had no party won an overall majority in the election of 2015, there would have probably been no referendum on the EU.

So in light of that change and no assurances to Nicola Sturgeon and the Scots from this govt; then she has every right and in fact the duty to explore all means to Scotland remaining in the EU and if that means leaving the UK, then if she has the support of Scots for that, to go for it again.

Also, since we are now getting suddenly in this thread tiny examples of not all Scots voting to remain.
Let analysis be done as to the areas of England that also voted the opposite way to leave this time then too.
Of which there is a good numbered 47% of all the people who voted in England as opposed to only 38% in Scotland.
If suddenly the minority, which is in Scotland the vast minority as to leave voters),should be now considered as the opening post appears to infer.
Both sides of the argument need to be balanced, not just one.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Firewire

Not when the Scottish people voted to stay as part of the UK with the knowledge of being part of the EU

That's changed now

You are right and it has changed considerably from what the Scots were told.

Also as to this thread, not one single Nation of the UK voted unanimously anyway, either way as to leave or remain.
That's blatantly obvious from the percentages won for each side.

[jaxie]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

You are right and it has changed considerably from what the Scots were told.

Also as to this thread, not one single Nation of the UK voted unanimously anyway, either way as to leave or remain.
That's blatantly obvious from the percentages won for each side.

The majority however did vote to leave. The majority of the UK.

Forgive me for not quoting from your other post just feeling a bit lazy but they weren't told the best way to remain in the EU was to stay in the UK. They were more or less told by the EU that the only way to stay in the EU was to stay in the UK. If Scotland had voted to be independent, they wouldn't have been in the EU anyway.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by jaxie

The majority however did vote to leave. The majority of the UK.

Forgive me for not quoting from your other post just feeling a bit lazy but they weren't told the best way to remain in the EU was to stay in the UK. They were more or less told by the EU that the only way to stay in the EU was to stay in the UK. If Scotland had voted to be independent, they wouldn't have been in the EU anyway.

Jaxie, I am not going to get into a tit for tat again with respect.

However either you didn't watch all the referendum campaign at the time of the independence vote or are choosing to ignore certain things said in it.

At the point where it looked like the independence vote could be lost,the statement was made, that if Scotland voted for independence it could not be in the EU, its best way to remain in the EU was to vote to stay in the UK.

Now you mentioned Question Time before, if you watch it regularly, MP after MP from Scotland states clearly, the Scots were told,a vote to stay in the UK was their only way of staying in the EU.

That may be something you do not want to believe but even Conservative MPs do not challenge that statement when on that programme,also on the Daily Politics and Sunday politics too, Andrew Neill himself has put that very question and statement to govt. MPs and Ministers.

Also we know the majority voted to leave across the UK, I still point out only thanks to the disproportionate larger numbers of electorate in England however.
This thread is not about that however, it is about highlighting a minority of voters in Scotland who in a tiny number of constituencies voted leave rather than remain.

Now you cannot reasonably expect no comeback when highlighting that, not to then have pointed out there were votes to remain,which were opposite your own view across the UK too.
With far more in fact percentage wise of the opposite view to you even in England, with as I said, 47% of English voters voting to remain as against only the 38% of Scots voting to leave.
The majority of the UK did vote to leave, the UK as I have said on here many times is not just England however and it is only England that carried this whole result.
In fact had England voted and all its votes counted and announced first, it was a waste of time the rest of the UK voting at all as all the might of English votes wiped all the rest of the votes cast out, no matter the majorities won.

Again however,since Scotland's vote was far more decisive than England's was, as was Northern Ireland's too.
Then as the leader of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon has every right to do all she can to ensure Scotland's vote is respected.
Nothing in the opening post, or article in included, undermines in my view that right she has to stand up for her voters.

Nearly two thirds of her voters said they want to remain in the EU, dress it up, analyse it all you like to pick holes in it but that is a fact, and it is also the biggest margin as a percentage,(24%,nearly a quarter),of electorate voting in any of the 4 UK supposed equal as to status Nations.

No one is saying the overall vote of the UK was not to leave, locks should have been put on the vote for me but they were not, however to try to diminish the large strength of the Scottish vote to remain in the EU, by highlighting a few constituencies narrowly voting leave, is an odd one to me.

However as I said, lets look at England then too in that case and its much smaller result of an only 6% as a percentage majority for leave, and equally look at the areas that voted to remain there too, if it is in order to highlight any opposing votes as to the actual remain result in Scotland.

I see you choose to ignore my saying that no Nation in the UK,( or area even), voted unanimously one way or the other.
Yet this thread is making the strange point that not all Scots unanimously voted to remain.
Why?
Since no one has ever said that how it is relevant.

[Kizzy]

By the same token England didn't unanimously vote to leave .... Many areas very much wanted to remain.

[jaxie]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Jaxie, I am not going to get into a tit for tat again with respect.

However either you didn't watch all the referendum campaign at the time of the independence vote or are choosing to ignore certain things said in it.

At the point where it looked like the independence vote could be lost,the statement was made, that if Scotland voted for independence it could not be in the EU, its best way to remain in the EU was to vote to stay in the UK.

Now you mentioned Question Time before, if you watch it regularly, MP after MP from Scotland states clearly, the Scots were told,a vote to stay in the UK was their only way of staying in the EU.

That may be something you do not want to believe but even Conservative MPs do not challenge that statement when on that programme,also on the Daily Politics and Sunday politics too, Andrew Neill himself has put that very question and statement to govt. MPs and Ministers.

Also we know the majority voted to leave across the UK, I still point out only thanks to the disproportionate larger numbers of electorate in England however.
This thread is not about that however, it is about highlighting a minority of voters in Scotland who in a tiny number of constituencies voted leave rather than remain.

Now you cannot reasonably expect no comeback when highlighting that, not to then have pointed out there were votes to remain,which were opposite your own view across the UK too.
With far more in fact percentage wise of the opposite view to you even in England, with as I said, 47% of English voters voting to remain as against only the 38% of Scots voting to leave.
The majority of the UK did vote to leave, the UK as I have said on here many times is not just England however and it is only England that carried this whole result.
In fact had England voted and all its votes counted and announced first, it was a waste of time the rest of the UK voting at all as all the might of English votes wiped all the rest of the votes cast out, no matter the majorities won.

Again however,since Scotland's vote was far more decisive than England's was, as was Northern Ireland's too.
Then as the leader of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon has every right to do all she can to ensure Scotland's vote is respected.
Nothing in the opening post, or article in included, undermines in my view that right she has to stand up for her voters.

Nearly two thirds of her voters said they want to remain in the EU, dress it up, analyse it all you like to pick holes in it but that is a fact, and it is also the biggest margin as a percentage,(24%,nearly a quarter),of electorate voting in any of the 4 UK supposed equal as to status Nations.

No one is saying the overall vote of the UK was not to leave, locks should have been put on the vote for me but they were not, however to try to diminish the large strength of the Scottish vote to remain in the EU, by highlighting a few constituencies narrowly voting leave, is an odd one to me.

However as I said, lets look at England then too in that case and its much smaller result of an only 6% as a percentage majority for leave, and equally look at the areas that voted to remain there too, if it is in order to highlight any opposing votes as to the actual remain result in Scotland.

I see you choose to ignore my saying that no Nation in the UK,( or area even), voted unanimously one way or the other.
Yet this thread is making the strange point that not all Scots unanimously voted to remain.
Why?
Since no one has ever said that how it is relevant.

As I said the vote to leave the EU wasn't about the different parts of the union and how they voted but about how the whole UK voted. In a vote where each person had a vote that counted towards the vote how different regions/nations voted is largely irrelevant.
The referendum was about each individual's opinion.

Don't know what you mean by titfortat. Are you implying I shouldn't respond if you post to me unless I agree with everything you said?
If you don't want me to respond it's easy enough not to respond to me. Otherwise I don't really get where you are coming from here.

The Scots were told by the EU, no UK no EU. If they were independent Scotland wouldn't be in the EU, so to try to claim another referendum based on leaving the EU doesn't maoe sense.

[jaxie]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/30...-independence/

Interesting article.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by jaxie

As I said the vote to leave the EU wasn't about the different parts of the union and how they voted but about how the whole UK voted. In a vote where each person had a vote that counted towards the vote how different regions/nations voted is largely irrelevant.
The referendum was about each individual's opinion.

Don't know what you mean by titfortat. Are you implying I shouldn't respond if you post to me unless I agree with everything you said?
If you don't want me to respond it's easy enough not to respond to me. Otherwise I don't really get where you are coming from here.

The Scots were told by the EU, no UK no EU. If they were independent Scotland wouldn't be in the EU, so to try to claim another referendum based on leaving the EU doesn't maoe sense.

Tit for tat is going round in circles, I have already said several times now and endlessly since the referendum on all the other host of EU threads, that Scotland was told its best way to stay the EU was to vote to stay in the UK.

That has been borne out on Question Time repeatedly,a programme you mentioned and in many interviews Andrew Neill has had with Conservative and other politicians too on Daily Politics and Sunday Politics programmes.

Tit for tat is me saying that and knowing that, then you repeatedly coming back with they were not told that.
So what is the point of that tit for tat.
I suggest respectively you watch those programmes because that same point is likely to be raised many times more yet anyway.

Also yet again you choose to sidestep my point as to why should it be relevant to highlight the small amount of leave voters and small number of constituencies voting leave in Scotland,
While avoiding looking at all the remain votes all across the others who voted leave in the UK ,which were actually much larger minorities than the much smaller one in Scotland voting leave.

That is what I came on this thread to address not to end up in another long drawn out, likely ending in a mess, of tit for tat of yet another EU thread.

By the way at no time since the referendum vote have the Scots been told no UK no EU for them.
The EU, simple has courteously as to the UK, just not engaged on solid talks on the issue until the UK has formally applied to leave, which is the right thing to do as well.
There is at present no ruling at all that somehow Scotland could not get membership of the EU or even a btter deal that possibly the rest of the UK could be left with in the end.

[jaxie]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

Tit for tat is going round in circles, I have already said several times now and endlessly since the referendum on all the other host of EU threads, that Scotland was told its best way to stay the EU was to vote to stay in the UK.

That has been borne out on Question Time repeatedly,a programme you mentioned and in many interviews Andrew Neill has had with Conservative and other politicians too on Daily Politics and Sunday Politics programmes.

Tit for tat is me saying that and knowing that, then you repeatedly coming back with they were not told that.
So what is the point of that tit for tat.
I suggest respectively you watch those programmes because that same point is likely to be raised many times more yet anyway.

Also yet again you choose to sidestep my point as to why should it be relevant to highlight the small amount of leave voters and small number of constituencies voting leave in Scotland,
While avoiding looking at all the remain votes all across the others who voted leave in the UK ,which were actually much larger minorities than the much smaller one in Scotland voting leave.

That is what I came on this thread to address not to end up in another long drawn out, likely ending in a mess, of tit for tat of yet another EU thread.

By the way at no time since the referendum vote have the Scots been told no UK no EU for them.
The EU, simple has courteously as to the UK, just not engaged on solid talks on the issue until the UK has formally applied to leave, which is the right thing to do as well.
There is at present no ruling at all that somehow Scotland could not get membership of the EU or even a btter deal that possibly the rest of the UK could be left with in the end.

The bold is what the EU said to them at the time of the Scottish referendum.
Of course it's always possible this view would change, may change, might not be so set in stone as it was at the time.

And in fact this has been broached on Question Time which I do watch regularly, and said to correct an SNP MP!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...o-9131925.html

That's one news report but there were several at the time from different people I recall. Don't really have time now to hunt them all down.

Spain and France have also both said in the press they would veto an attempt by Scotland to join the EU. Spain is very much against it because of the Catalonia region that also would like independence.

I'm not arguing with you for the sake of arguing, I'm just explaining what I remember reading at the time.