[sampvt]

Originally Posted by *mazedsalv**

This is the reason we get a lot of unpredictable winners IMO. There are many ways it can go.

1. Fanbase vote.

On this alone, Jedward would win hands down, no two ways about it. They would have the most dedicated fanbase. Potentially a strong vote.

2. Casual vote

This is quite a strong vote. OK, we don't get that many more viewers for a final than we do normally, but most say they never vote on the show until a final. We don't know how these people will vote. This could be potentially James C or Coleen for being more well known to all audiences.

3.Middle-Aged

Strong vote. IMO it may be why we had such winners like Denise which surprised people... may have been why we got a Julian/Coleen F2 in CBB10. Coleen/James C will benefit.

4. Teen/Twitter vote

I question whether this vote is strong now. IMO this is stronger on a civilian BB, but with so many people of all ages in the house for CBB... it's not always the case of "i'm young, i'm voting young people". Twitter have quite a lot of love for all the HMs.

5. Transferable votes

IMO the strongest of all. To me it's a 4 vs 2. If 3 of them are evicted and 1 is left standing, they potentially will get the votes to win from the others (this has happened before). Whoever is left of that group of 4 IF Kim/Jedward are standing will possibly win. This can also be called the anti-vote. I think Nicola, Bianca, Coleen and James C will benefit from this, especially if there are ex HMs supporting them. Jamie, Calum, Austin, Speidi fans could all align themselves with voting for 1 of those 4.

Kim and Jedward have backing only from Jessica really.

This is a very good analogy of the voting system and the last mention is the key. 60% of the total vote comes last minute and if nicola goes first with Bianca following her, nothing will change. If coleen goes next or even Kim, Cosmo will get those last minute votes and beat Jedward, which is what i think will happen. Jedward only have one demographic to lean on, so its them against the rest and cosmo, coleen and Kim voters hate Jedward.

For me it can only be Kim or Cosmo for the win, but we dont know what kind of effect the twitter waring factions have been doing and even if they are going to vote. Do Jedward fans have the cash to splash on votes, pocket money is short these days.