[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by Soldier Boy

Nothing has meaningfully changed though, the Tories have simply gotten themselves into a farcical and unelectable rut, so their voters have scattered. The more "further right" ones to Reform, the more "central" ones to Labour and Lib Dem, and the working class cohort they'd duped for a decade to a mix of Reform and Labour depending on which paper they were reading - i.e. the same reason they were previously voting Tory.

What will happen though, is that the Tories will be gutted & cleaned and rebrand as "the good old Tories you remember!" and their vote share will jump right back up. I don't see anything at all representing meaningful or lasting change. A tonne of those Reform voters will flip back simply because they believed Reform was a new big player, and have found out otherwise. 4 seats might be unexpected, people who follow politics might realise it's more than what a party like that might usually expect... but the dumb right-leaning TikTok kids who thought Farage had a shot at No. 10 are going to be saying "...4 seats? " and they'll probably go Tory next time as a more "realistic" option.

Though as I said earlier I also think we're going to start seeing increasing numbers of charismatic and/or single-issue Independents actually getting seats.

I think ordinarily, your views on this reform nonsense would be spot on, but I think this is a different time. The neoliberal/capitalist destruction of living standards in favour of corporate profits, means people are desperate. Just as we have seen in France with a centrist Macron, doing absolutely nothing to redress societal inequality, leading to the very real prospect of Le Pen, Starmer will follow the Macron path.

We should fear what 2 terms of Starmer inactivity will mean for the electability of extreme right wing politics, in 2029.

[Beso]

Originally Posted by The Slim Reaper

I think ordinarily, your views on this reform nonsense would be spot on, but I think this is a different time. The neoliberal/capitalist destruction of living standards in favour of corporate profits, means people are desperate. Just as we have seen in France with a centrist Macron, doing absolutely nothing to redress societal inequality, leading to the very real prospect of Le Pen, Starmer will follow the Macron path.

We should fear what 2 terms of Starmer inactivity will mean for the electability of extreme right wing politics, in 2029.

Labour have already started to try and become more palatable to the right wing voters, take a look at their tv campaign adverts for instance.. hardly a black face in them this time.

[user104658]

Originally Posted by The Slim Reaper

I think ordinarily, your views on this reform nonsense would be spot on, but I think this is a different time. The neoliberal/capitalist destruction of living standards in favour of corporate profits, means people are desperate. Just as we have seen in France with a centrist Macron, doing absolutely nothing to redress societal inequality, leading to the very real prospect of Le Pen, Starmer will follow the Macron path.

We should fear what 2 terms of Starmer inactivity will mean for the electability of extreme right wing politics, in 2029.

I agree that there will be a swing back the other way but I'd put a 70%-ish certainty that Labour will scrape another 5 years at the next GE, and by the time the pendulum has fully swung back the Tories will have patched themselves up. Who knows though - as recently as Boris I'd have said that the Tories were unbeatable.

[Mystic Mock]

Originally Posted by The Slim Reaper

I think ordinarily, your views on this reform nonsense would be spot on, but I think this is a different time. The neoliberal/capitalist destruction of living standards in favour of corporate profits, means people are desperate. Just as we have seen in France with a centrist Macron, doing absolutely nothing to redress societal inequality, leading to the very real prospect of Le Pen, Starmer will follow the Macron path.

We should fear what 2 terms of Starmer inactivity will mean for the electability of extreme right wing politics, in 2029.

I don't believe that Starmer will get two terms.

I think that he'll be an underwhelming leader (which the Tory Media will pounce on) plus the Tories will pick a candidate that their base actually likes, and that's Starmer out.

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock

I don't believe that Starmer will get two terms.

I think that he'll be an underwhelming leader (which the Tory Media will pounce on) plus the Tories will pick a candidate that their base actually likes, and that's Starmer out.

I see Angela Rayner backstabbing him the first time it becomes obvious that the country is losing faith in him


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[The Slim Reaper]

Originally Posted by Mystic Mock

I don't believe that Starmer will get two terms.

I think that he'll be an underwhelming leader (which the Tory Media will pounce on) plus the Tories will pick a candidate that their base actually likes, and that's Starmer out.

No way tories get back in after one term away. Memories of the last 14 years will still be fresh. Lab will re-run party gate adverts and Johnson quotes about letting bodies pile high. One term governments don't happen in this country,

[Crimson Dynamo]

PMQ's are set to get better!

[Crimson Dynamo]

Basildon recount could and should be the 5th Reform seat

[Zizu]

All that noise for what ??

3 seats

LOL


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[user104658]

Originally Posted by Zizu

All that noise for what ??

3 seats

LOL


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Now now Zizu don't poke fun - some overzealous individuals were creaming their boxers last night when they thought Nige was getting 10+ seats and are still very very excited at the prospect of 4 or 5. It's exciting times for UKIP.

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Soldier Boy

Now now Zizu don't poke fun - some overzealous individuals were creaming their boxers last night when they thought Nige was getting 10+ seats and are still very very excited at the prospect of 4 or 5. It's exciting times for UKIP.

3 , 4 or 5 seats equates to a park bench basically




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[arista]

Originally Posted by Zizu

All that noise for what ??

3 seats

LOL

4 Seats is good.

Some said only Farage would get a seat

[Liam-]

The reform result just goes to show how much the media and talking heads overestimated Reforms capabilities, an obvious protest vote was made to seem like an avalanche, an exit poll predicting 13 seats, to end up with only 4? The same amount as the Greens who have vastly less money and backing

[Liam-]

Saw people before the exit poll genuinely celebrating thinking Farage would be the leader of the opposition

[Beso]

Originally Posted by Liam-

Saw people before the exit poll genuinely celebrating thinking Farage would be the leader of the opposition

He kind of will be.

[Livia]

Your smiley/laughing emoticons shows how little you understand what has happened.

[arista]

If England had PR

Reform UK would have had 93 MP's

Worked out on TV.

[Crimson Dynamo]

What does Reform need to overtake the Tories? Fewer than 340k voters

Nigel Farage’s party may only have five MPs to its name but, for them, this is only the beginning



Nigel Farage’s plan to be prime minister in five years’ time may seem far-
fetched, but it would take fewer than 340,000 voters to switch to Reform UK for
the party to overtake the Tories and become the official opposition, a Telegraph
analysis shows.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...eral-election/

[arista]

Reform now has 5 MP's


https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1809262665690120249

[Oliver_W]

Have the chavs yelling over Farage's speech earlier today been discussed in the election thread?

[Beso]

The worst thing is...

We've got 14 years of that **** again.

[arista]

Labour Business Secretary
on every show
spreading lies about Reform UK
claiming they want Russian politics.

Utter Bollocks from him.

[arista]

[Crimson Dynamo]

Originally Posted by arista

Proud day for our Nigel

[arista]

The new 5 Reform UK
MP's went into to parliament today


(L to R)
Lee Anderson MP
Nigel Farage MP
Rupert Lowe MP
Richard Tice MP
James McMurdock MP aged 38