[user104658]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

When the vaccine has been fully rolled out, we'll probably get lulled into a false sense of security again in summer when the virus is dormant in the main so it will be next autumn at least before we know how successful the efforts have been.

I agree; my prediction is that the vaccine rollout will be nowhere near as fast as people seem to think, but it will be rolled out to a noticeable extent just in time for summer... when case numbers will bottom out again like they did this year... and that will be attributed to vaccination being a 100% success, and then there will be big bold headlines and shock when the numbers start to creep upwards again in October. I doubt winter 2021-22 will see numbers as high as we're going to get this year, especially deaths as most of the vulnerable population will be vaccinated and hospital treatment for the very-ill will have improved even further, but yeah... I think we're in for a few more winters of Covid headlines.

The knock-on effects, on the economy, on mental health, on things like tourism and international travel as well as how businesses operate in general will be even bigger in scope and will likely never fully revert.

Not all necessarily in bad ways I suppose; e.g. there has been a massive shift to doing business digitally out of necessity that I think will persist to an extent simply because it saves so much money, but also, people travelling less for business (especially international business) and opting to do business via video link etc. is a huge win for the environment. People will still travel, but any reduction in road & air travel is a bonus.