[user104658]

To consider:

In 2016 I got 5/1 on Trump to be the next president, AFTER primaries, when it was down to just him and Hillary Clinton.

Currently, he's sitting at 11/10 favourite with most bookies ... and that's with multiple other candidates still in the race.

Two explanations for this. One is that they think it'll be a Biden-Trump election race and when it comes down to that, Trump will be odds-on favourite.

There is a slight illusion here though because the other explanation is that they think Biden might not run ... i.e. that on health grounds he might not make it to election night.

However I don't think that's likely. I think there are only a couple of even vaguely realistic scenarios here:

1) Trump is the next POTUS

2) The legal issues surrounding Trump result in him being ineligible to run.

3) Trump has a stroke or heart attack before the election. I mean he is 77.

Outsider 4) Biden (or other Democrat) is the next POTUS which tbh might make me believe in vote fixing conspiracies because in the current political landscape... I just don't think the Dems win the next presidency.