[GiRTh]

Originally Posted by Livia

Immigration and Europe is all they need for the Euros. By the general election some professionals will have put their ducks into some semblance of a row. Maybe they'll blow themselves out at the Euros, we can only hope.

You're depressing me.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by GiRTh

You're depressing me.

On the bright side, I might be way off the mark. It's been known.

[Vicky.]

I honestly don't know where I stand on the EU tbh..

I can see benefits and downfalls.

And I dont see why we even bother when we don't even take the help we can get from being part of it? The recent floods being an example..apparently there was some kind of fund we could get he from, which never got applied for

[user104658]

Originally Posted by Livia

I don't agree. I worked for the Tories until December and I have to say, their confidence grew significantly in the couple of months before I left. Like you say, a year is a long time, but the campaigns have started already. That's not to say that I support them, but I do think they're working hard to win back their core voters and I think it's beginning to work. But only time will tell... see you back here with joeysteele for the post-match analysis next year.

The Tories couldn't even achieve an overall majority (causing them to form the most laughable coalition government conceivable) at the last General Election when they not only had core voters, but had also managed to sway some less politically aware members of the traditionally Labour population, who they swiftly flipped over and buggered mercilessly as soon as they were in power.

Those people will not vote for them again.

And on top of that, people who didn't vote at all in the last election but are feeling the effects of Tory policies the most over the last few years will (surely, one would think) be out in force as soon as they get the chance.

I simply can't picture a scenario where the Tories, who only managed to cobble together a frankengovernment last time around on the back of both "standard" Tory faithful AND gullible sheeple who were swayed by their campaign rhetoric, could feasibly achieve any sort of majority this time around.

Of course, I suppose there's always the nightmare scenario; ToryKIP. But then, almost every poll has shown that UKIP vote increases correlate with Tory decreases. UKIP votes are almost all ex-Tory votes.

[GiRTh]

Originally Posted by Livia

On the bright side, I might be way off the mark. It's been known.

I just hope they need too much preparation and screw up somewhere down the line. a la Katie Couric v Sarah Palin. It depresses me that UKIP are effectively going to bluff their way thru with no real policies than their obvious pandering over immigration and Europe. I just hope the hard news journalists expose them for the fraud they really are.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

The Tories couldn't even achieve an overall majority (causing them to cause the most laughable coalition government conceivable) at the last General Election when they not only had core voters, but had also managed to sway some less politically aware members of the traditionally Labour population, who they swiftly flipped over and buggered mercilessly as soon as they were in power.

Those people will not vote for them again.

And on top of that, people who didn't vote at all in the last election but are feeling the effects of Tory policies the most over the last few years will (surely, one would think) be out in force as soon as they get the chance.

I simply can't picture a scenario where the Tories, who only managed to cobble together a frankengovernment last time around on the back of both "standard" Tory faithful AND gullible sheeple who were swayed by their campaign rhetoric, could feasibly achieve any sort of majority this time around.

Of course, I suppose there's always the nightmare scenario; ToryKIP. But then, almost every poll has shown that UKIP vote increases correlate with Tory decreases. UKIP votes are almost all ex-Tory votes.

Well, like I said, we'll see.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Livia

I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.

I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.

Massaged stats do not mean employment is down, jobseekers on sanctions, on unpaid work placements and ESA claimants currently awaiting tribunals are not added to the list of unemployed.

'A total of 141,000 people were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default'
http://www.cesi.org.uk/statistics/labour/february-2014

[Livia]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Massaged stats do not mean employment is down, jobseekers on sanctions, on unpaid work placements and ESA claimants currently awaiting tribunals are not added to the list of unemployed.

'A total of 141,000 people were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default'
http://www.cesi.org.uk/statistics/labour/february-2014

Yes, I know all that. I'm not waving a flag for any party here, nor am I denying the points you've made. But your average voter won't base their vote on that stuff, they'll base it on what's important to them and theirs and there will be very few Tories in the groups you've described.

[Kizzy]

Oh yes you only have to mention immigration to get all the tory ducks going quackers like katie Hopkins on acid..... The EU is about more than that and trade, work rights and justice being the biggies for me.
What the tories want is for middle England to press the self destruct button... and these 'educated' ignorami might just do it too...... pffft!

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Livia

Yes, I know all that. I'm not waving a flag for any party here, nor am I denying the points you've made. But your average voter won't base their vote on that stuff, they'll base it on what's important to them and theirs and there will be very few Tories in the groups you've described.

No they won't you're right, they'll look at those employment figures and think 'ooh arn't they good getting those dole wallers off their keister and off to work', not realising those figures are a gross misrepresentation and not worth the paper they're printed on just more fabrications by the shysters that be..

[Livia]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

Oh yes you only have to mention immigration to get all the tory ducks going quackers like katie Hopkins on acid..... The EU is about more than that and trade, work rights and justice being the biggies for me.
What the tories want is for middle England to press the self destruct button... and these 'educated' ignorami might just do it too...... pffft!

All the rhetoric in the world isn't going to change the fact that people vote for those who stand for what they believe in themselves and by whom they think they'll get screwed the least. And the 'uneducated' ignorami will just stay at home on polling day like they always do.

[Livia]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

No they won't you're right, they'll look at those employment figures and think 'ooh arn't they good getting those dole wallers off their keister and off to work', not realising those figures are a gross misrepresentation and not worth the paper they're printed on just more fabrications by the shysters that be..

Then it's the job of the other parties to bring that to the voters' attention, and not get side-tracked, like they usually do on all sides, by petty squabbling, point-scoring and mud slinging.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Livia

All the rhetoric in the world isn't going to change the fact that people vote for those who stand for what they believe in themselves and by whom they think they'll get screwed the least. And the 'uneducated' ignorami will just stay at home on polling day like they always do.

But that's all they have is rhetoric, the conservatives have been rolling out the same stock phrases for 40-50 years!
They latch onto the island mentality and give a nice pink tinge to the idea of being out of the EU, the reality will be less rights for everyone.

'A principal target for the prime minister in his speech on Europe will be to wrench the UK away from the social and employment policies of the EU. Millions of people in Britain will suffer if he is successful. He must not be.'

'Cameron's manoeuvre is unworthy and mean-spirited. EU employment rights, like the EU itself – even with all its flaws – deserve the determined support of British working people. They're a cause worth fighting for. His vision of a UK without significant protections for employees, and competing not on quality but on cheapness and vulnerability, would be a disaster.'

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...workers-rights

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Livia

Then it's the job of the other parties to bring that to the voters' attention, and not get side-tracked, like they usually do on all sides, by petty squabbling, point-scoring and mud slinging.

So what it comes down to is the barnum effect, creating a saachi 3 ring circus to parade these grey clad clowns?
It's nothing to do with policies, just who can keep their manic grin painted on for the longest time whilst controlling what spin the plebs get fed with their morning bowl of chemicals?

[smeagol]

it doesn't really matter what the torries say they will be out on there asses come election day. all i hear is yabba yabba yabba.

[GiRTh]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

So what it comes down to is the barnum effect, creating a saachi 3 ring circus to parade these grey clad clowns?
It's nothing to do with policies, just who can keep their manic grin painted on for the longest time whilst controlling what spin the plebs get fed with their morning bowl of chemicals?

I dont agree and I cite the Katie Couric V Sarah Palin interview as an example. It was clear from that interview that Palin knew little about so many vital areas of government. Consequently the hard news Journalists could not take her seriously - and openly took the p*ss out of her - and she had to resort to a series of 'soft ball' interviews that were obviously highly controlled and designed to make her look good. It eventually filtered down to the public and The GOP had absolutely no chance in 2008 with Obama romping to victory. I dont think the public are as dumb as politicians think and if a candidate is not suitable for government - and I feel no UKIP candidate is suitable - it will be obvious to even our untrained eyes.

[Kizzy]

"No, but the way it was all based on how you looked was the same as with Ed. It's how you look – ginger, Welsh, blatant references all the time – 'How could you possibly consider having a prime minister who grew up in a prefab?' They would use those kinds of justifications for then saying Neil was an unlikely prime minister, and they do the same with Ed. They can't say he's not extremely intelligent, but they do imply a lot about his looks all the time.'
I ask if they think David Miliband would have suffered the same sort of personal attack, but Neil shakes his head. "The difference between David and Ed, so far as these newspapers are concerned, is that they decided David was going to win, so he was their candidate, and they hate being wrong. The whole herd – with some very laudable exceptions – just hate being wrong. And one of the reasons for the antagonism towards Ed, from day one, was the fact that he beat their candidate. I'm not saying David was 'their' candidate in any strong political sense, but they had decided that that's what the Labour party would do. They were wise, they were knowing, they had insights and they concluded it was going to be David. So he was their adopted candidate – and he was defeated. So they decided to scrag Ed right from the start."

To punish him for proving them wrong? "Yes, and then to prove themselves right that what they regarded to be inadequacies were actually dominant features. Now this could sound like paranoia – but it's not. Because the reality is, the man is very calm, very courageous, he's highly intelligent, he's got imagination as well as classical intelligence, and he keeps on producing insights which are scorned for a week and then they become part of the political vocabulary six months later – squeezed middle, responsible capitalism, one nation. He's proving them wrong all the time, and they don't like his courage." Glenys nods, "They prefer the banality of saying 'Red Ed'.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ew-ed-miliband

[GiRTh]

I agree with Kinnock. He's been talking alot of sense for years. Shame no one took him seriously when he was labour leader.

However, I rely on the hard news journalists for their ability to dig deep into the candidates knowledge of all issues of government. I cant wait to hear what Farage has to say about China or the middle east or the state f the economy to get a sense of his perspective and how his policies will differ from the three parties. I hope - and pray - they expose his lack of knowledge and experience and show him for the bluffer he really is.

[arista]

Originally Posted by Vicky.

I honestly don't know where I stand on the EU tbh..

I can see benefits and downfalls.

And I dont see why we even bother when we don't even take the help we can get from being part of it? The recent floods being an example..apparently there was some kind of fund we could get he from, which never got applied for

Yes thats why Clegg Vs Farage Live 7PM
BBC2 will be good.

http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/foru...d.php?t=246927

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

Yes thats why Clegg Vs Farage Live 7PM
BBC2 will be good.

http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/foru...d.php?t=246927

I am really looking forward to that debate arista, although I don't want UKIP to do well in the EURO elctions or the general election,as I have said before all I can see is Nigel Farage running rings round Nick Clegg.

This EU is Nick Cleggs territory but he is too strong in favour of it to appeal to most voters as to it,even about 14% of his voters last time have left the Lib Dems, and I think he will get into difficulties.

For me, Nick Clegg has given UKIP and Nigel Farage a massive boost with challenging him to this debate.
Not a wise or good move in my view.

[Kizzy]

In all seriousness why are these two given such a platform prior to the election? if farage throws out his soundbites it could unfairly influence those who are leaning towards UKIP? lib dems views are not labours, and everyone is well aware of the conservative perspective as they have the Mail to voice it regularly.

[arista]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

In all seriousness why are these two given such a platform prior to the election? if farage throws out his soundbites it could unfairly influence those who are leaning towards UKIP? lib dems views are not labours, and everyone is well aware of the conservative perspective as they have the Mail to voice it regularly.

Because the BBC whats viewers
for this live Event.


Both have been on LBC

Infact the first one is on LBC radio online



[The Deputy Prime Minister will debate the
UKIP leader in a radio debate on LBC
on March 26 and live televised
debate chaired by David Dimbleby on BBC 2 on April 2. ]

[Kizzy]

So where are labour in these debates?

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Kizzy

In all seriousness why are these two given such a platform prior to the election? if farage throws out his soundbites it could unfairly influence those who are leaning towards UKIP? lib dems views are not labours, and everyone is well aware of the conservative perspective as they have the Mail to voice it regularly.

I don't think this debate will matter a great deal really Kizzy, for me the way I see it is there will be no referendum as to the EU from any party and all the party leaders know that too.

Firstly, UKIP will never in my opinion get to 23% in the polls where they would need to be just to even pick up likely 3 or 4 seats max.
The Lib Dems will nver back a referendum vote as to the EU unless they were sure it would result in an 'IN' vote.

Ed Miliband has ensured he would not have to have a referendum as in reality it is doubful at this time that the EU would embark on any new treaties that involved power transfers from Countries,so he is covered.

David Cameron is well aware I believe that he will never get to the 39/40% level in the polls and have Labour on less than 34% that would even just give him a bare overall majority.
All this hot air as to Europe and the referendum is a desperate attempt to possibly manage to come out again as the largest party in the 2015 election.
Again in that event, no referendum, as he says he will 'only' re-negotiate and hold a referendum if he gets an overall majority.

So no referendum at all from any party in the next parliament is in my view even probable,they all have their get out clauses in place now anyway as to same.

Europe at the heart of election campaigns don't bode well for the ones going on about it.
I have been reading up on the 2001 election again, daft William Hague made that all about saving the pound, he went on an on about it apparantly,stating Labour would join the Euro and the pound would be gone.
The last week was full of 5 days to save the pound, 4 days to save the pound etc;.

he went down to almost as big a defeat as John Major had 4 years before that in 1997,adding barely 1% to his total votes cast for the Conservatives.

Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems in the 2005 election, they have clawed back at least 6 or 7% of that again and that is why they are solidly in the upper 30s of percentages of voting intention.
In 13 years the Conservatives in fact only rose from around 31% in 1997 to just over 36% in 2010.

I cannot see any way they will exceed that figure and even if they and Labour were on 35 or 36% each, that would result in a likely majority Labour Govt when you consider Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster and the SDLP in Northern Ireland would back the Labour party in parliament.

So this debate between Clegg and Farage wll be an interesting sideshow that will in the end have no lasting impact whatsoever, in my opinion.
I repeat again,I do not for one minute believe any party leader either wants to have or will indeed have,(despite all the hot and in my view wasted air from David Cameron and co), any referendum on EU membership in the next parliament.

[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

I don't think this debate will matter a great deal really Kizzy, for me the way I see it is there will be no referendum as to the EU from any party and all the party leaders know that too.

Firstly, UKIP will never in my opinion get to 23% in the polls where they would need to be just to even pick up likely 3 or 4 seats max.
The Lib Dems will nver back a referendum vote as to the EU unless they were sure it would result in an 'IN' vote.

Ed Miliband has ensured he would not have to have a referendum as in reality it is doubful at this time that the EU would embark on any new treaties that involved power transfers from Countries,so he is covered.

David Cameron is well aware I believe that he will never get to the 39/40% level in the polls and have Labour on less than 34% that would even just give him a bare overall majority.
All this hot air as to Europe and the referendum is a desperate attempt to possibly manage to come out again as the largest party in the 2015 election.
Again in that event, no referendum, as he says he will 'only' re-negotiate and hold a referendum if he gets an overall majority.

So no referendum at all from any party in the next parliament is in my view even probable,they all have their get out clauses in place now anyway as to same.

Europe at the heart of election campaigns don't bode well for the ones going on about it.
I have been reading up on the 2001 election again, daft William Hague made that all about saving the pound, he went on an on about it apparantly,stating Labour would join the Euro and the pound would be gone.
The last week was full of 5 days to save the pound, 4 days to save the pound etc;.

he went down to almost as big a defeat as John Major had 4 years before that in 1997,adding barely 1% to his total votes cast for the Conservatives.

Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems in the 2005 election, they have clawed back at least 6 or 7% of that again and that is why they are solidly in the upper 30s of percentages of voting intention.
In 13 years the Conservatives in fact only rose from around 31% in 1997 to just over 36% in 2010.

I cannot see any way they will exceed that figure and even if they and Labour were on 35 or 36% each, that would result in a likely majority Labour Govt when you consider Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster and the SDLP in Northern Ireland would back the Labour party in parliament.

So this debate between Clegg and Farage wll be an interesting sideshow that will in the end have no lasting impact whatsoever, in my opinion.
I repeat again,I do not for one minute believe any party leader either wants to have or will indeed have,(despite all the hot and in my view wasted air from David Cameron and co), any referendum on EU membership in the next parliament.

Good points raised there Joey, I tend to agree with your closing comment that No Govt will actually give the GBP an In/out Referendum to decide our future in the EU.

It is such a complicated subject in fact I doubt even the experts could agree on whether the UK is better or worse off in the long run by staying in the EU.

I think the prevailing political view is that the UK is currently stronger being part of it, a view Ed Miliband seems to share.

So until it becomes patently obvious to all interested parties ie Govt, Corporate Business etc.. that staying in the EU is damaging Britain I think in the EU we will stay and all talk of referendums will remain just that..ie all talk