[MusicXian]

Read an article with Janet supposedly topping votes weeks 1-5. Source was Daily Star supposedly.

While Amelia topped week 6 probably be side of her comeback week.

Other than that only Marcus has got close to Janet it seems from the article. Will post a couple on this in a bit.

[Tom]

Despite being from Daily Star I actually believe this. They call it right every year. They said Matt & Mary topped last years (which was true), the year before they said it was Danyl, Stacey and Rachel but noone believed it because Rachel was in the bottom 2. That was also true. And they also said Eoghan was topping the votes in series 5 and Leon in series 4, also true.

[Z]

I wonder if Janet will start to tank like Diana did or if she'll hold out for the win like Matt did? Before Matt last year I'd have said it was impossible for somebody to consistently top the votes by such a huge margin but after that, I guess anything's possible. I love seeing the voting figure breakdown at the end of the series, so glad they started releasing that info - wonder if we'll ever see the stats for the other series?

[Locke.]

Eoghan topped them every week up until week 8, hopefully Janet can hold out and win though

[MusicXian]

From ********


17-year-old Janet Devlin has been topping The X Factor 2011 vote every week, it has been claimed. The Northern Irish singer has supposedly yet to fail in the eyes of viewers, despite some harsh criticism from the judges.


It certainly makes sense, the copper haired teenager has been leading our poll on the site every week so far despite poor comments from the panel.

According to the Daily Star, one in five votes cast so far this year have been for the youngster.

Only Marcus Collins has apparently come close to rivalling Janet’s support.

Following last night’s twist, a source told the newspaper: “[Amelia] will have [her] work cut out to reel in Janet’s support.”



Read more: http://xfactor.********.co.uk/news/5...#ixzz1eNLez2wQ

[MusicXian]

An interesting blog from Sofabet... a betting service

Why we think Janet Devlin can still win the X Factor
Janet Devlin, the star of audition show 1. Janet Devlin, golden girl of bootcamp. Janet Devlin, the last act we saw going through to the lives at judges’ houses. Janet Devlin, recipient of the week 1 pimp slot for ‘Fix You’. Oh, Janet, where did it all go wrong?

For the fourth week in a row, Janet got negative comments from the judges. In week 3, Janet was called “boring”. In week 4, she was called predictable and told to do something different. In week 5 she did something different and – in a classically-executed reverse ferret – was told to stick to what she knows.

Most recently, week 6 saw Tulisa say “your style is a bit one-dimensional” and Gary add: “I’m starting to lose interest in you… I just don’t feel like you’re making enough of an effort.” In a highly unusual move, in the Sunday reprise including backstage reactions even Kelly was negative about her own act: “I don’t know what happened… it was just an alright performance”.

It’s hardly surprising there’s a majority view in the Sofabet comments box that (as Curtis puts it) “the producers clearly want Janet out”. However, we’re not at all convinced that’s the case.

Sure, if it turns out Janet hits the bottom two this week and is dropped like a hot potato, you’ll be able to say the writing was on the wall. But something doesn’t feel right about the idea that the show has given up on Janet. Up to week 2, she could do no wrong – and then suddenly, from week 3, she has been able to do no right. If something changed, it changed between week 2 and 3. What could it be?

One possibility is that programme-makers decided Janet isn’t as marketable as they first thought. Now, there is a case against Janet’s being marketable, and Dug makes it: “Janet is aiming at an extremely over-saturated corner of the market… I think that the charts are currently experiencing a bit of a comedown from the ‘unique’, ‘haunting’, ‘ethereal’ trend which has been dominating for a while.” But is it really credible that programme-makers hadn’t thought about this in months of planning, and then were suddenly persuaded of it amidst the heat and fury of organising the lives?

Another possibility is that they changed their minds about Janet herself. Along with her unhelpful VTs and negative judges’ comments, the last four weeks have seen a stream of rumours suggesting that Janet is difficult behind the scenes. Last Sunday, the Mirror reported:

Kelly Rowland, 30, is barely talking to Janet Devlin after losing patience with her constant strops…

Backstage sources say 16-year-old Janet – originally considered the shyest contestant – has become impossible to work with, refusing to wear outfits picked for her and arguing about song choices.
Could it be that the show failed to vet Janet sufficiently before deciding to focus so heavily on her in the audition stages, and it was only a couple of weeks into the lives that they realised she was a nightmare and decided they didn’t want to set her up for a post-show career after all?

Maybe, but we doubt it. We reckon there’s a much simpler explanation for what might have changed between weeks 2 and 3 – this was the first time producers had got to see figures from a public vote. What if Janet absolutely creamed it?

There is suggestive evidence that this might be the case: the Daily Star, who have form in this area, reported an alleged leak on Sunday that Janet has been topping the vote every week; the performance in the early weeks of 2008′s Eoghan Quinn suggests the power of the Ulster vote; and the YouGov survey of earlier in the series had Janet also leading the pack on the mainland.

Let’s assume for a moment that the first public vote told producers that they had substatially over-egged the Janet pudding. On the face of it, if producers wanted Janet to do well, what would be the problem? The problem comes if it starts to seem like the winner is a foregone conclusion, because that could affect ratings. And given the weakness of the field, producers may have calculated from the first week’s results that they could not afford to keep giving Janet positive comments.

However, if we assume that they also wanted to maintain Janet’s credibility as a potential winner, then the dragging down would have to be carefully done, to create the impression of struggling without inflicting any lasting damage. And if we re-interpret Janet’s treatment since week 3 in that light, then it arguably starts to make a whole lot more sense.

Consider the week 3 VT, which showed tabloid journalists telling Janet “we’re writing about Kitty, we’re writing about Frankie, we’re not writing about you” (implication: you’re not interesting), “it’s a popularity contest” (implication: you’re not popular) and it’s part of the X Factor package to have a “personality” (implication: you don’t). We saw Janet replying that “if people don’t think I have the X Factor, they shouldn’t vote” – and, at the time, we were confused about why the show would want to plant this thought in viewers’ minds.

However, you can also view the hidden message in the Frankie and Kitty comparisons as being that Janet is a serious musician rather than tabloid fodder – a message backed up by other parts of Janet’s reply: “I’m here for the music… I’m not going to be someone else just to get votes… I have that respect for myself.”

Janet’s week 5 VT had her saying “I’ve taken control of pretty much everything… I chose the outfit… I’ve even had my input into how the staging is… I know what I like and I know what’s me.” We saw her rejecting suggested outfits and saying she didn’t want dancers on the stage as it would detract from the music. Kelly called her “feisty”.

At this time, this looked like an attempt to feed the rumours that would later be summarised in the above Mirror quote as Janet becoming “impossible to work with, refusing to wear outfits picked for her and arguing about song choices”. However, what is that quote really telling us about Janet? Let’s rephrase it in a more positive light: She knows who she is, and she takes no ****. Is this really supposed to be a bad thing?

It certainly makes for an unexpected and favourable contrast to the supposedly much more self-confident Misha B, who has apparently been content to have the bejesus styled out of her in the last two weeks, with no obvious beneficial effect.

Advancing further into the realms of cynicism, one might wonder whether Janet has been deliberately fed some duff advice to create the storyline of her being difficult to work with and the reported rift with Kelly. And one might wonder whether the confusing advice of recent weeks, to do something different then to stick to what you know, might actually be intended to stir up sympathy for Janet. Dermot even pointed it out in his post-performance interview this week: “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”.

In the comments after this weekend’s shows, HenryVIII observes: “Gary calling Janet boring on her birthday actually gives Janet votes… Janet’s mentor being cold with her will also help her votes. So they are achieving the opposite effect to their plan, if derailing her is their plan.”

“If”, indeed. And if derailing Janet is not the plan – well, doesn’t it make perfect sense? If producers were asking themselves after week 2 how they could make it seem like Janet was not on a winning trajectory without actually pulling her off that winning trajectory, then giving her criticism that will strike many viewers as unconstructive, contradictory and overly harsh would certainly have been one possibility.

Can we even be confident that the reported bust-up with Kelly Rowland is intended to rebound negatively for Janet? Kelly’s stock is not as high as it was before sicknotegate, after all. Janet’s latest VT showed her listening to Kelly and saying, almost plaintively, “I just want to be myself”. Are voters going to think the worse of her for that?

Rewatching the judges’ comments for Janet’s latest performance, ‘Someone To Love’, also reveals an interestingly ambivalent message. On the one hand, we have the unflattering visual of Tulisa and Kelly clapping perfunctorily while Gary and Louis don’t applaud at all, then the criticism from Tulisa and Gary quoted above. On the other hand, the following things are also said:

Louis: “We’re looking for a recording star, you are a recording star”;
Tulisa: “I can see there’s a market for you… there’s people out there who are going to buy your albums… I’d have to be in a certain mood to listen to your album, and that’s the only problem for me” (is there any album you don’t have to be in a certain mood to listen to?); and
Gary: “You need to take these opportunities and think of them as if you’re presenting us with your first single”.
In other words, three times the judges planted the thought in viewers’ minds that Janet is going to have a post-show career. Even in the middle of Gary’s harsh criticism, there was a clear subtext – it’s taken for granted that Janet is going to have a first single. Is this really the behaviour of a show that is intent on casting its former favourite into the Siberian darkness?

After her most recent pummelling, Janet has drifted out to a top price of 5/1 in the win market - the longest she’s been since before bootcamp. Here’s our case for believing that this might start to look like pretty good value come the final.

We’ve said all along that it would make dramatic sense to have each of the three new judges with a horse in the final, and this seems to be on track. Tulisa’s one remaining act, Little Mix, are getting heaven and earth thrown at them. We also see no reason to change our long-held view that there is room for one – no more, no fewer – Scouse boy in the final. (Which one it will be, we’ll consider in the next article).

Which leaves room for a girl. Which girl? We made the case in our previous post for why we think it would be suicidal for the format to have Amelia Lily last that long. And after Misha B’s second bottom two experience, it’s starting to look like it would require the Glazers and Sheikh Mansour to join forces to fund the phone votes.

So let’s make a leap and postulate a final of Little Mix, Craig/Marcus and Janet. And let’s make a further leap – a speculative but not outlandish one – and imagine that voting figures will tell producers that Little Mix, like One Direction before them, are too far back to be helped over the line. In such a situation, if you were in charge of the show, would you throw your weight behind Craig/Marcus or Janet? We know who we’d choose.

So there’s our case for not giving up on Janet. Have we convinced you, or are we going to end up with egg on our faces when Janet lands in the singoff this weekend and is unanimously dispatched back to Gortin? As ever, do let us know below.

[Jack_]

I can also believe this, and as Zee said it's a question of whether she'll pull off a Matt and sail to victory or whether Marcus will steal it off her towards the end, which I'm leaning towards if you ask me.

As I said in some other threads, I think this is how the remaining eliminations will pan out:

Week 08 - If there's no bottom two - Misha. If there is - Amelia.
Week 09 - If there's no bottom two - Amelia. If there is - Little Mix
Week 10 - Marcus will win, Janet second and depending on whether there's a bottom two or not, Little Mix/Misha third.

Originally Posted by Zee

wonder if we'll ever see the stats for the other series?

Sadly I doubt it, I don't think there's enough demand for it.

[MusicXian]

The last blog ype post from sofabet there, well I think it may be completely spot on. I think week 1 and 2 Janet probably smashed to polls and since they have tried to make her look bad. Most VTs have hardly been positive at all, not much publicity about her etc. bad judges comments even when she wasnt really that bad (week 4 or 6). While they have been driving others to glory. Now that Janet has probably been cut back slightly they will give her more positive reviews in case she does end up winning.

I think the show did not want another favourtie at the start to win it again, now its ok if she goes on to win as she was not the fave all the way through like Matt.

[Niamh.]

These voting leaks are always wrong

[MusicXian]

X Factor 2011 Week 7 Review: Better the Devlin you know
We have criticised the X Factor producers often enough this year, so it’s time to dish out some praise – they’ve done a brilliant job in keeping us guessing about who’s going to win this thing.

This is clear not only from the wide-open look of the market, with 2/1 the field and all five acts quoted at single figure prices. It’s also demonstrated by the answer to the “who do you expect to win” question in the recent YouGov poll, which featured a wide spread of opinion.

There are now three acts left whose vote performance we can only speculate about because they have never been in a singoff – Marcus Collins, Janet Devlin and Little Mix. Only producers know whether each of these acts is flying high or barely surviving, and perhaps it’s very clear to them which way this is likely to pan out. But it’s not clear to the rest of us. The public perception is of an open and exciting race, and for that programme-makers must be applauded.

Interestingly, only 8% of YouGov respondents said they expected Janet Devlin to win, a figure which would surely have been much higher before the lives. So if the theory we floated last week is right, that her treatment does not indicate a desire to get rid of her but a desire to hide how well she’s doing, then it has succeeded spectacularly.

Once again, Janet’s treatment this week makes sense only under one of two polar opposite interpretations: (a) producers are desperate to see the back of the Ulster lass, or (b) producers still want to keep her in and were confident she was as safe as houses. Which is it?

In the comments, bunnyman was convinced that Janet’s VT was intended to harm her – having “started off talking about her being boring and finished off talking about her being boring, it felt like an out and out crucifiction.”

We see the point about the repeated hitting of the “b” word – we pointed out when it was first used, in week 3, that it’s an elementary mistake in politics to repeat a criticism you want to deny, as it subliminally reinforces the criticism in voters’ minds.

Still, there is another way to read the VT. It developed a narrative about Janet which we analysed in our article about her last week, that she has a firm sense of her musical identity: “I’m definitely not your big, stereotypical pop artist. I’ve nothing against pop music, it’s just difficult to find songs that I like in the pop industry. I’ve strong ideas about what I want”.

You can read this as feeding the sense of Janet as being kooky and difficult – and the YouGov poll shows she has picked up plenty of negatives, being second only to Misha B in this respect and far ahead of her other rivals. This could increasingly become a problem as the competition continues and the votes of those who dislike Janet are split between progressively fewer acts.

Alternatively, you can see it as showing us a young girl who is apparently managing to keep her head, her identity and her integrity amidst the maelstrom of the X Factor silliness. Part of Matt Cardle’s appeal last year was a sense of authenticity, and the show is quietly doing a proficient job of conveying the same about Janet – as Louis said about her ‘Kiss Me’ in comments: “no tricks, no gimmicks, with you it’s all about the music”.

Janet’s VT then showed her talking about being in a posh hotel and having to have her hair and make-up done, saying “I’ll probably never get used to that”. We saw an X Factor stylist being exasperated by Janet’s disinterest in wearing anything elaborate and fancy. On the red carpet for the Twilight premiere, she found it “weird” that people were calling her name.

What impression do we get from all that? We see a down-to-earth girl with her feet on the ground and a healthy disrespect for fame, celebrity and the fickle world of high fashion. Is this really damaging Janet? It’s certainly making the Sofabet team warm to her more and more on a personal level (though admittedly we usually have a soft spot for the awkward ones).

This allegedly means we differ from Gary Barlow and Kelly Rowland, if we are to believe a piece of intelligence brought to us by Sofabet commenter Nugget, who writes that he was in the audience on Saturday:

I was close enough to hear the judges private non broadcast comments while the VTs were running and am now 100% certain that the judges will do everything in their power to stop Janet winning…
It was in particular comments made between Gary and Kelly while the VTs were running about Janet being wierd and hard to work with. The impression I got is they really don’t like herUnder normal circumstances we would doubt very much that this would matter. As we have written in our article discussing the role of the X Factor judge when it comes to a singoff, one can query how much the judges’ private personal opinions – as opposed to their awareness of the thinking that goes on at a programme level – influences what comes out of their mouths when the mics are on during the live shows.
Having said that, with speculation in the press last week that Gary might not be back in 2012, we have to wonder if there may be a greater possibility of him going off-message in the remaining weeks. Certainly we were surprised by the harshness of his tone in voting to send Amelia home in Sunday’s singoff. And for anyone who watched Xtra Factor on Saturday, it did not appear to be pantomime anger in his spat with Tulisa over song choice critiques.

No doubt the X Factor is like any other workplace behind the scenes, with arguments and ego clashes and tiresome petty rivalries. Still, our critique of the show assumes that ultimately professionalism will prevail and a united front will be put on, so the more important question is what programme makers are intending for Janet.

And that – still, after week 7 – remains very much open to question in our book. After four weeks of negativity, her comments on Saturday were a whole lot more positive and, as Kate said, “she looked happy for the first time since the live shows began”. On the other hand, Dug wonders:

Were the nicer song choice and kinder words for Janet perhaps tactical? I wonder if the negative coverage so far is provoking further support from her hardcore fans and it’s time to go easier on her. Had producers actually wanted to rescue her with ‘Kiss Me’ it would have been the perfect opportunity for Janet to whip out her illusive guitar as Matt Cardle had done many times by this stage last year. I have to believe that the plan is still to dampen Janet oh so carefully in order than she be easily shiftable in the later stages of the contest.
This interpretation is backed up by some less-than-helpful visuals. As pointed out by Rob in the comments, camera angles are one of the tools in the producers’ arsenal – watch Janet’s performance back and notice how much time is devoted to sweeping wide-angle shots of a largely black (though not red) stage. The theory is that this matters because close-ups of an act’s face give them a better chance of making an emotional connection with viewers at home.

As with last week, the immediate reaction shot of the judges was also damning – no applause from Louis, Tulisa or Gary, and perfunctory applause from Kelly.

While there is an emerging consensus in the comments that we’re heading for a Janet-Marcus-Little Mix final, the most obvious explanation of Janet’s treatment remains that producers are manouevring her towards the exit door. If that happens in week 8 or 9, we won’t be able to say they didn’t warn us.

Nonetheless, despite this obvious explanation, we still wonder if the show’s intention may be to hold off on making a decision about Janet for as long as possible until it becomes clear to them whether or not they’re going to be able to make Little Mix fly. To entertain this theory you would have to postulate that producers would ideally like a Little Mix win, but would prefer a Janet win to a Marcus win if they perceive those to be their realistic options – a scenario which seems speculative but not implausible.

Under this scenario, what they did this weekend would make sense – start the process of backtracking on the negativity to make it credible if they do end up deciding to give Janet her guitar and the “this is why we fell in love with you at your audition” treatment, but without yet risking that they light a fire under her that they couldn’t put out.

We’ll come back to the question of Little Mix’s position and prospects in a separate post later this week. We’re also planning a separate retrospective on the battle to be top Liverpudlian boy – now won by Marcus – as the abrupt withdrawal of favour from Craig Colton on Saturday casts an intriguing new light on what has gone before.

For now, though, let’s simply observe that there are three ways to read the pimping of Marcus Collins. The most obvious is that Marcus is doing so well in the vote, producers have made their peace with the idea of him being the winner.

We think a more plausible interpretation, however, is that producers see Marcus heading for the final and they don’t want to risk chatter about how unfair it is that he’s the only contender left who hasn’t had a pimp slot. They may have decided to get his pimp slot out of the way with three weeks before the final so that they can safely ignore him from here on in.

A third possibility is that Marcus might not be doing so well in the votes at all - as tpfkar’s speculative tweaking of Toby’s Twitter stats suggests. If we assume that the show would like Gary to have an interest in the final, once the decision had been made to dump Craig, that left Marcus as his only hope – so is it possible that he needed the pimp slot as a strategic boost?

All of which speculaton brings us back to where we started – bravo, producers. For all that we’ve questioned and criticised some of their decisions this series, to have us speculating so furiously about the relative standing of the top three acts in the betting – and their intentions towards two of them – is no mean feat.

What are your thoughts on how the weekend changed the landscape? As always, your interpretations, impressions and theories are warmly welcomed in the comments box below.

[MusicXian]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

These voting leaks are always wrong

Daily Star supposedly very good, but I think the producers have not wanted Janet to win, maybe because behind the scenes she is more difficult to handle (not difficult in terms of being a bad person, but she seems quite picky with staging, dresses, songs etc.) maybe too much effort for the team after the show and giving Janet an album to record.

I think they have really set out to damage Janet, and if what I read in that article is true, about Gary and Kelly both saying Janet is difficult to work with then that is just horrible. It also explains why Kelly rarely even smiles or applauds Janet.

I mean week 7 they all said Janet gave a good performance yet only Kelly gave a crappy little applause. Erm?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

These voting leaks are always wrong

Theyre not. The only voting leaks that are wrong is when they come out and say Jedward or Wagner are on course to win... and of course they crashed out of the competition the same week the reports were published

[MusicXian]

If I am being honest, I think after seeing week 1 votes, they would have even tried to damage Janet in week 2 already if it wasnt for her Grandad passing away.

[Niamh.]

Originally Posted by Tom

Theyre not. The only voting leaks that are wrong is when they come out and say Jedward or Wagner are on course to win... and of course they crashed out of the competition the same week the reports were published

Well I hope they're right cos I love Janet but I remember leaks coming out every year and they're always completely different from the figures they give when it's finished. Maybe I was reading the wrong ones

[Wildcat!]

good for janet. personally, i love her voice, and i am not surprised. none of the other acts were any special, except for marcus.

[Z]

That article was an interesting read, MusicXian. It's true that they've kept us guessing, and I think all of the theories posed are credible!

[MusicXian]

http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/foru...d.php?t=169070

That was how the voting went last year. Other than Matt cruising all the way I can see some sort of pattern. I think Janet will finish 3rd, like how Mary dropped off a little last year, but this year more because of how Janet has been portrayed by the public.

I think as abcd keeps saying, Marcus could go on and win. he is supposedly the closest contender to Janet in them first 5 weeks at some point, so now with all of Liverpool backing him he can win it. Little Mix will finish 2nd in a Rebecca Ferguson style assault on the competition, but not enough to go and win it. Amelia/Misha 4th and 5th.

Misha will be bottom of the votes this week for sure unless she pulls 2 huge performances, even then not sure how much it can change things. I say this because you see last year Cher went from 8th to 3rd, something like Misha probably did this year, but then dropped down to last again after the sympathy vote week.

[Smithy]

Originally Posted by Niamh.

These voting leaks are always wrong

[2]

Last year it was always One Direction or Tesco Mary at the top of the votes, when infact it was always matt or rebecca

[Niamh.]

Originally Posted by Smithy

[2]

Last year it was always One Direction or Tesco Mary at the top of the votes, when infact it was always matt or rebecca

Yep and the year before it was Jedward always topping the votes, when in fact they never did iirc

[MusicXian]

I think as said the Daily Star are meant to be quite good with these things. Maybe the editor's brother works on X-Factor head production or something

[Jordan.]

What nonsense

[MusicXian]

I believe it as true, especially considering Janet was very popular in the first 3 weeks anyway and some of that stayed on for week 4 or 5. Doesn't necessarily mean she will win, but also says alot that she has not been in bottom 2 despite bad comments from judges.

Supposedly Amelia headed week 6 vote aswell (same source), alot of that thanks to her comeback of course. With Craig gone now though most of his fans votes will be split between Amelia, Little Mix and especially Marcus. Janet has her fanbase set, I do not think she will gain many new ones from contestants who are out of the competition which makes me think she will not win it.

[Kazanne]

Matt topped the votes every week except for one which was taken by Mary.

[MusicXian]

Indeed and fact is alot of true Janet Devlin fans (and there are still very many) actually liked her week 4 performance especially (also week 6 was ok) and probably voted in week 5 because they thought she would be in trouble after forgetting the words.

[Marc]

If she wins, the show dies