[Livia]

Originally Posted by MTVN

The Ukraine crisis has been heavily reported on overall and I think people are well aware of it, it was all over the news when Yanukovych was first ousted, when Crimea was annexed and when East Ukraine descended into civil war particularly with the shooting down of MH17. It's slipped out of the public eye somewhat in recent months because the conflict reached a bit of a stalemate, neither side making any major advances and with several peace proposals attempted but never lasting. And in those months of stalemate its fair to say it has been overshadowed by the rise of IS and attacks in the Western world. As recent events have shown though the Ukraine crisis was never lurking too far in the background.

I don't agree with DemolitionRed I'm afraid. Putin is belligerent, he is a proud man, he will not be dictated to, but he does not want a war and I don't believe he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. Russia is weak right now, they could ill afford it and I really don't buy the notion of Russia as this red menace still desperate to swallow up Eastern Europe. If Putin preys on vulnerable nations then what has the West done ever since the Cold War with NATO taking more and more ex-Soviet countries under its wing while maintaining a hostile position against Russia? This is what Paddy Ashdown wrote on the situation today, I actually disagree with much of his article but do agree with this:



Truth is that Ukraine has always been pretty fertile for tensions like these and both the West and Russia have played a part in their explosion. Making out that Russia's involvement is the cause of all ill in the country ignores the legitimate grievances of a lot of eastern Ukraine, it ignores the questionable way in which Yanukovych was first toppled, and it ignores that the Ukraine government has thought nothing of shelling civilian areas without even a peep of condemnation from the West. In basically every other country in the world governments in power are urged to enter into dialogue with opposition groups, in Ukraine its just been a case of crush them by any means possible, and we'll even give you the weapons to do it.

Post of the week for me.

[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by EyeballPaul

Now i'm not really a follower of the YouTube conspiracy theories and RT propaganda of the west orchestrating the Ukraine revolution,Although i don't discount the fact that it is possible.
Also yes i agree that the US was wrong in its Middle East involvement regarding Iraq.
The US are not the paragon of moral high ground in the world and have done alot of shady stuff in world.
However the US are not the ones invading a European country on our back door.Saying the US is bad does'nt automatically make Russia good.Russia has used alot of underhand tactics and blatently lied about them.However bad America is,They are'nt the immediate threat in Europe at the moment,More so the Middle East which yes does have a knock on effect in the world and i am not a USA!USA! flag waver.I believe America are dangerous but not as dangerous to us as Russia at this time.

Please please tell me how Russia is a threat to you... ...??

How many times have they invaded Britain , exactly ... They are no threat , they just want to be left to develop their country and utilise their resources.

They are only a threat when they are constantly prodded and probed by our friends across the water who think they have a God given right to rule the whole flipping planet.

They are also a threat when they decide to sell oil and gas in currencies other than US dollars, a bit like the other countries who tried to do this eg Iraq,Libya, Afghanistan, Syria they all seem to have found themselves bombed invaded and their leaders overthrown.

Anyone see a pattern emerging.... Probably half the reason Iran is under such scrutiny because it wants to set up an oil bourse that doesn't trade exclusively in USD .

Once China depegs it's currency from the USD it too will be a target for aggressive US sanctions / actions.

Bottom line is that the U.S. are only surviving by virtue of the fact that the rest of the world buys their debt by using the USD as the world's reserve currency. Once that goes the US will implode so trust me when I say that they will do absolutely anything and everything they can to maintain the status quo.

Question- in times of global tension where does all the money go where is it stored ?
Ans - in US Dollars






.

[Northern Monkey]

Originally Posted by Nedusa

Please please tell me how Russia is a threat to you... ...??

How many times have they invaded Britain , exactly ... They are no threat , they just want to be left to develop their country and utilise their resources.

They are only a threat when they are constantly prodded and probed by our friends across the water who think they have a God given right to rule the whole flipping planet.

They are also a threat when they decide to sell oil and gas in currencies other than US dollars, a bit like the other countries who tried to do this eg Iraq,Libya, Afghanistan, Syria they all seem to have found themselves bombed invaded and their leaders overthrown.

Anyone see a pattern emerging.... Probably half the reason Iran is under such scrutiny because it wants to set up an oil bourse that doesn't trade exclusively in USD .

Once China depegs it's currency from the USD it too will be a target for aggressive US sanctions / actions.

Bottom line is that the U.S. are only surviving by virtue of the fact that the rest of the world buys their debt by using the USD as the world's reserve currency. Once that goes the US will implode so trust me when I say that they will do absolutely anything and everything they can to maintain the status quo.

Question- in times of global tension where does all the money go where is it stored ?
Ans - in US Dollars






.

I do agree with majority of your post regarding oil currency and have seen many programmes on this.But as i said none of this makes Russias arrogant invasion of a European country any better.It is too bold of a card to play and has ramped up East/West tensions beyond anything seen since the Cold War.Putin can't just go and Annex a European country by force and yes he does have influence over the rebels and alot of them are Russian special forces along with advanced AA weaponary which the Eastern Ukrainians would not have access to.

So far the West has'nt retaliated but Putin did'nt stop at Crimea,He is expanding his aggression further and further into Ukraine and if is left unhindered who knows where he will stop.

If he pushes further and further west and heads for Kiev which is not that far fetched as his momentum grows then the fighting will be fierce and America and very likely Britain,Poland,Germany etc will send troops in and it will be the start of a world disaster which could very easily escalate into a serious conflict bigger than any seen so far.So yes Russia is a threat to all of us.It played to strong a hand and was uncalled for.If the Ukrainian people want to be part of the EU or even Nato then that is up to them.Russias bully tactics should not be tolerated.I do believe that if the Eastern Ukraine wants to become autonamous then they should have a right to vote on that WITHOUT Russia influencing the vote with troops as they did in Crimea but if Russia gets greedy and pushes toward Kiev then we are all in trouble.

[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by EyeballPaul

I do agree with majority of your post regarding oil currency and have seen many programmes on this.But as i said none of this makes Russias arrogant invasion of a European country any better.It is too bold of a card to play and has ramped up East/West tensions beyond anything seen since the Cold War.Putin can't just go and Annex a European country by force and yes he does have influence over the rebels and alot of them are Russian special forces along with advanced AA weaponary which the Eastern Ukrainians would not have access to.

So far the West has'nt retaliated but Putin did'nt stop at Crimea,He is expanding his aggression further and further into Ukraine and if is left unhindered who knows where he will stop.

If he pushes further and further west and heads for Kiev which is not that far fetched as his momentum grows then the fighting will be fierce and America and very likely Britain,Poland,Germany etc will send troops in and it will be the start of a world disaster which could very easily escalate into a serious conflict bigger than any seen so far.So yes Russia is a threat to all of us.It played to strong a hand and was uncalled for.If the Ukrainian people want to be part of the EU or even Nato then that is up to them.Russias bully tactics should not be tolerated.I do believe that if the Eastern Ukraine wants to become autonamous then they should have a right to vote on that WITHOUT Russia influencing the vote with troops as they did in Crimea but if Russia gets greedy and pushes toward Kiev then we are all in trouble.

First of all.... Why oh why would Russia want to invade Ukraine and go marching on to Kiev, even Putin isn't that stupid.

Besides Ukraine is a bankrupt country and is heading towards failed state status, no Russia doesn't need to invade the Ukraine it will always be a major partner to ukraine , a protector and a bank ready to give ukraine the money it needs with less strings attached than the IMF or world bank.

Do some research into what US companies have set up in Ukraine, massive agri industries like Monsanto ready to grow even more GM crops at the expense of Ukraine's already established agricultural industries.

By setting up this current puppet govt with its masters in Washington the Ukrainian people East and west have been sold a lie and their country is now a battlefield in proxy Cold War.

Such a shame that the rest of the world did not condemn the illegal revolution in Ukraine in 2013.

Look at where we are now, all totally unnecessary.

I hope the European peace initiative works and the fighting and killing stops but I doubt it as the US is furious Putin took Crimea to protect its naval bases in Sevastopol when really the big payback for the US was supposed to be the new Ukrainian govt terminating the leases for these bases and forcing Russia into a corner.

But as usual President Putin out manoeuvred the US as he thinks two or three moves ahead.

As someone once said the US president plays draughts while the Russian president plays chess.

Don't be fooled the US has created this whole crisis for its own geopolitical agenda , I just wish more innocent people didn't have to die in the crossfire.





.

[DemolitionRed]

The Crimea has been part of the Ukraine since 1954 but like the rest of the Ukraine and all the countries bordering Russian territory, it strongly depends on Russia for gas (amongst other things), Russia is known as a petro-state and the Ukraine is its lapdog.

In more recent years the Ukraine has been trying to break away from that dependency by building their own gas terminals for both themselves and with the intention of selling that gas to a viable market. Russia was, for obvious reasons, not prepared to lend money on this project but the US and the EU were. The Ukraine is a big country and its stability does affect the stability of Euope as a whole. Free trade agreement insured that countries stability and up until early last year the Ukraine believed they were heading towards that much needed signature.

Why do we want to get into a proxy war with Russia? the answer is, we don't, we really don't. This isn't about triumphalism and that's why we only started to implement sanctions after endless diplomatic talks with Moscow. The west very much stood back because they wanted the Ukraine to determine their own destiny; we wanted a peaceful resolution. We only started to up our game after the ceasefire in September wasn't honoured. I'll add to that... there is so much information from both Washington and Moscow about this ceasefire; nobody really knows who threw the first stone.

What we do know is, Russia started to cross borders into the Ukraine with tanks and heavy rocket launchers. We also know that Russian artillery has been fired across the borders and that Russian backed rebels are being armed with rifles and anti-tank weapons. This is a fratricide war but only one side are armed. Why shound the west not back those who need to fight the Russian separatists? We were already involved in Negotiations with the Ukraine before this upheaval. So far, the west has only sent emergency aid for the 1.5 million displaced Ukrainians. Its shown and still shows no eagerness to to pour gasoline onto an open fire like the Russians appear to be doing.

[Nedusa]

Perhaps dividing the Country is the only real solution, or having a loose collecton of autonomous states like a Federal Republic.

Clearly the majority of Russian speaking Ukrainians in the East do not want to be ruled by this new Govt in the West (whose first law was to ban the use of Russian language) and I would guess the vast majority of the western Ukrainian population would prefer to look to Europe and not have any connections with Russia.

Clearly these two views are incompatible so perhaps the answer is some sort of split like Czechoslovakia or like the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.




.

[Z]

Originally Posted by Nedusa

Perhaps dividing the Country is the only real solution, or having a loose collecton of autonomous states like a Federal Republic.

Clearly the majority of Russian speaking Ukrainians in the East do not want to be ruled by this new Govt in the West (whose first law was to ban the use of Russian language) and I would guess the vast majority of the western Ukrainian population would prefer to look to Europe and not have any connections with Russia.

Clearly these two views are incompatible so perhaps the answer is some sort of split like Czechoslovakia or like the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.




.

I'd characterise a break up of Ukraine along the lines of Yugoslavia, it'll be messy and it won't keep many people happy. The problem is that the Soviet Union upon its dissolution left millions of people displaced, without a nationality and living in foreign countries where they'd once been at home. I even have a friend whose mother could never come visit her here in the UK because she doesn't have a passport, due to being a Russian Tatar living in Estonia who never renounced her nationality and took up Estonian nationality. Ukraine's East-West tug of war is certainly a major flashpoint in what could be World War III, but I'd reckon the destabilising effect of ISIS is far more of a threat. That juggernaut could reach the Caucasus, spread through the Middle East and North Africa and cause a total meltdown and redefinition of the world's borders as we know them, worst comes to worst.

[arista]

Prof Z

if the Americans Arm Ukraine
will it lead to WW3?


My Bunker is fully stocked.

[empire]

ukraine is no match for russia, putin is going to pump 600 billion into russian military modernization program that will last up to 2050, they aren't going to start another arms race, america can't afford to start one either, ukraine is a failed state, before the maiden, moscow had to pay billions every month, to kiev, the eu does not want ukraine membership, just a trade deal, this is america's doing, all this fighting for one thing, syria,putin stopped us-nato bombing of the syrian arab goverment, so they will bring the fight to his borders, to think that if assads goverment fell to nato bombing, the isis would of taken all of iraq and syria, and jordania and egypt would be next on the list,

[Z]

Originally Posted by arista

Prof Z

if the Americans Arm Ukraine
will it lead to WW3?


My Bunker is fully stocked.

Nah, it's another proxy war like those we saw in the Cold War (Afghanistan, Vietnam...) where as long as there's a thinly veiled sense of "it's not happening in our territory, so it's not really happening", nothing will come of it. Tensions will remain high and frosty but neither Russia nor the USA wants a war, both would rather remain expansionist (NATO expansion vs Russian annexations) and indirectly confrontational than at war. The more likely cause for World War III, if there was to be one, would be the fearless, terrifying rebels in the Middle East. That whole region is one big melting pot of religious, political and class based tensions that no one solution can accommodate. You have Shias vs Sunnis, Christians vs Muslims vs Jews, nepotism in various emirates and kingdoms, downtrodden men and women (especially women), highly Westernised city states vs nomadic desert tribes... the legacy of colonial times is finally coming to bite the west in the ass, in my opinion we should get the **** out of where we don't belong and leave them all to sort it out themselves. People will die, but they're dying anyway. At least if we retreat and let the various factions fight it out and work things out amongst themselves, we can deal with whatever rises out of the ashes instead of the plate spinning exercise that we've got going on at the moment. We can't fight Islamic State effectively because it's not confined to traditional borders, it's not a war that can be fought in traditional terms, in one region we refuse to cooperate with the government and in the other we've got what's essentially a Western-installed puppet government that has absolutely no power or respect among the people it presides over. Tony Blair and George W Bush have a lot to answer for, I think they should be tried as war criminals, personally, and it is a complete ****ing laugh that Tony Blair is now lording it up in the Middle East claiming to be a peace envoy of some sort. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and Osama bin Laden may have done some terrible things, but they were all once allies to the West. We've ****ed up.

World War III could well be on its way; we've got the rise of extremist parties all over Europe, total anarchy in the Middle East, North Africa (and parts of Western Africa) and the Caucasus; a great deal of hatred towards Muslims and a very poor understanding amongst every day people about what's actually going on around the world; this is all too familiar and echoes the political climate that led to World War II, except this time it's Muslims who are the subjects of scorn and misunderstanding instead of Jews and it's an undefined Islamic State that's acting belligerently in Asia instead of Nazi Germany in Central Europe. I do worry about it because we all assumed that we'd never go to war again, having learned our lessons... but the people in the Middle East didn't learn a lesson from World War II, the only lesson they learned is that the West felt like they could just flippantly draw borders, insert a large population of refugees and take all the oil from the Gulf. There's a lot of resentment towards the West and I'm not sure people really understand why.

[lostalex]

Russia supplies lots of military equipment to south american countries that are hostile to america.

Why does Russia supply weapons to Venezuela which constantly calls America the devil and the empire???

[empire]

venezuela has huge pools of oil, chavez was right about the coup in 2002, cia was behind it, venezuela is buying military hardware from russia for defense purpose only, after the iraq war, venezuela bought also the S-300 missile defense system, for some strange reason, america did not feel upset about that, but when assad had bought it, the west went up in arms about that, so putin made a deal that he would not supply the air defense system to syria, for no nato bombing,

[lostalex]

Originally Posted by empire

venezuela has huge pools of oil, chavez was right about the coup in 2002, cia was behind it, venezuela is buying military hardware from russia for defense purpose only, after the iraq war, venezuela bought also the S-300 missile defense system, for some strange reason, america did not feel upset about that, but when assad had bought it, the west went up in arms about that, so putin made a deal that he would not supply the air defense system to syria, for no nato bombing,

and you don't think Ukraine has the same reason to want military equiptment from the US? after all of the hostilities against them from Russia?

and just for the record, the US has never kicked up a stink about Russia supplying arms to latin countries. (because we know the technology is inferior, and mostly useless against the US military)

[arista]

Putin agrees to a ceasefire

[MTVN]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31359021

Quite surprised the BBC have ran this, just shows how murky it was the way in which Yanukovych was toppled

[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by Z

Nah, it's another proxy war like those we saw in the Cold War (Afghanistan, Vietnam...) where as long as there's a thinly veiled sense of "it's not happening in our territory, so it's not really happening", nothing will come of it. Tensions will remain high and frosty but neither Russia nor the USA wants a war, both would rather remain expansionist (NATO expansion vs Russian annexations) and indirectly confrontational than at war. The more likely cause for World War III, if there was to be one, would be the fearless, terrifying rebels in the Middle East. That whole region is one big melting pot of religious, political and class based tensions that no one solution can accommodate. You have Shias vs Sunnis, Christians vs Muslims vs Jews, nepotism in various emirates and kingdoms, downtrodden men and women (especially women), highly Westernised city states vs nomadic desert tribes... the legacy of colonial times is finally coming to bite the west in the ass, in my opinion we should get the **** out of where we don't belong and leave them all to sort it out themselves. People will die, but they're dying anyway. At least if we retreat and let the various factions fight it out and work things out amongst themselves, we can deal with whatever rises out of the ashes instead of the plate spinning exercise that we've got going on at the moment. We can't fight Islamic State effectively because it's not confined to traditional borders, it's not a war that can be fought in traditional terms, in one region we refuse to cooperate with the government and in the other we've got what's essentially a Western-installed puppet government that has absolutely no power or respect among the people it presides over. Tony Blair and George W Bush have a lot to answer for, I think they should be tried as war criminals, personally, and it is a complete ****ing laugh that Tony Blair is now lording it up in the Middle East claiming to be a peace envoy of some sort. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and Osama bin Laden may have done some terrible things, but they were all once allies to the West. We've ****ed up.

World War III could well be on its way; we've got the rise of extremist parties all over Europe, total anarchy in the Middle East, North Africa (and parts of Western Africa) and the Caucasus; a great deal of hatred towards Muslims and a very poor understanding amongst every day people about what's actually going on around the world; this is all too familiar and echoes the political climate that led to World War II, except this time it's Muslims who are the subjects of scorn and misunderstanding instead of Jews and it's an undefined Islamic State that's acting belligerently in Asia instead of Nazi Germany in Central Europe. I do worry about it because we all assumed that we'd never go to war again, having learned our lessons... but the people in the Middle East didn't learn a lesson from World War II, the only lesson they learned is that the West felt like they could just flippantly draw borders, insert a large population of refugees and take all the oil from the Gulf. There's a lot of resentment towards the West and I'm not sure people really understand why.

Excellent Post.........says it all really.







.

[DemolitionRed]

Its a combination of many things that could lead us into WWIII I think Andrew Handley has it spot on...http://listverse.com/2014/03/06/10-s...world-war-iii/

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by arista

Prof Z

if the Americans Arm Ukraine
will it lead to WW3?


My Bunker is fully stocked.

They effectively just have because the international monetary fund have just handed them 17.5 billion dollars. That's seen as a financial transaction and not arming the Ukrainians so we can put our hands up and still say we didn't arm them but that's going to be open to question.

If we get involved then China will come in on Russia's side.

As the ceasefire agreement was being singed this morning, Russia's television broadcasts were saying that they now had enough man power on western borders to take all of Europe and that they could take Germany and Poland in a day.

[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

Its a combination of many things that could lead us into WWIII I think Andrew Handley has it spot on...http://listverse.com/2014/03/06/10-s...world-war-iii/

I have to say that article is the worst anti Russian drivel I have read in a long long time. My God what planet is this guy on, such narrow minded pro western nonsense, totally biased, does not look at the bigger picture, just read some of my earlier posts and you will see who the real villian is.

It really frustates me to read propaganda like this as many people will believe this rubbish and take it for fact, when it isn't, it's a distorted version of events spun to cast Russia as the evil empire.

Utter tosh..................






.

[Kizzy]

Thank god, I hope it holds.


An agreement aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine has been reached, following marathon talks in Belarus.

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France announced that a ceasefire would begin on 15 February.

The deal also includes weapon withdrawals and prisoner exchanges, but key issues remain to be settled.

The pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine have signed the agreement. Thousands of people died in almost a year of fighting in the region.

The BBC's Richard Galpin in Minsk says the deal is very similar to a ceasefire agreed last September, which unravelled very quickly.

The latest agreement includes:

Ceasefire to begin at 00:01 local time on 15 February
Heavy weapons to be pulled out from conflict zones, beginning on 17 February and completed in two weeks
All prisoners to be released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
Ukraine to control border with Russia if conditions met by the end of 2015


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31435812

[Northern Monkey]

Cease fire won't last.

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by Nedusa

I have to say that article is the worst anti Russian drivel I have read in a long long time. My God what planet is this guy on, such narrow minded pro western nonsense, totally biased, does not look at the bigger picture, just read some of my earlier posts and you will see who the real villian is.

It really frustates me to read propaganda like this as many people will believe this rubbish and take it for fact, when it isn't, it's a distorted version of events spun to cast Russia as the evil empire.

Utter tosh..................

.

And of course, I could call your posts utter tosh!! Please point out what is tosh in this article?

I said before, we are diametrically opposed and so we have to agree to disagree. I believe we all need to take a share of the responsibility regarding what is presently going on in the Ukraine, regardless of weather you're east or west of that country; the issue is, the people in the Ukraine have become collateral between the east and the west.

[arista]

Originally Posted by EyeballPaul

Cease fire won't last.

Yes so many are saying that

[arista]

Fisty Cuffs in Ukraine Politics

[Vadim Ivchenko, from the Fatherland party, then throws an almighty right hand on to the jaw of Mr Sobolev]

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz3RYq5RizJ

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by EyeballPaul

Cease fire won't last.

Will it even start?

This ceasefire has been brokered by Germany and France,(the primary movers behind negotiating the ceasefire). Its been called an unconditional ceasefire, however, the Ukrainian PM left the negotiations at one point claiming he couldn't work with these political conditions such as the decentralization of power within the Ukraine and referendums and democratic reforms (that's a joke that has been insisted on by Russia!). The Ukrainians have accepted a massive IMF loan in return for their capitulation. While all this has been going on, the state control Russian media has been reporting from their current front line that the Russian army could march to Poland or Germany. These statements just don't concur with the story that is being told in the discussions over the ceasefire.

This is the second time a ceasefire has been agreed on and as we all know, the first one never happened.